Dynamic simulation of land use and carbon storage prediction by coupling InVEST and PLUS models:taking Huailai County as an example
Land use change is one of the main factors leading to changes in carbon storage in ecosystems.Based on the analysis of land use in Huailai County from 2012 to 2022,combined with socio-economic and natural resource conditions,the PLUS model is used to predict land use in 2027.The land use data are combined with the carbon density of the study area and input into the InVEST model to calculate the carbon storage in each period.The results show that ① From 2012 to 2022,the construction land area and forestland area continued to increase.The cultivated land area continued to decrease.The forest area continued to increase.②In 2027,the cultivated land in the land use status is predicted to be 579.51 km2,forestland 548.49 km2,shrub 7.25 k m2,grassland 410.48 km2,waters 57.63 km2,bare land 0.17 km2,construction land 179.42 km2.The increase in construction land has decreased.③Carbon reserves are as follows:120.59× 105 t in 2012,118.99 × 105 t in 2017,120.42 ×105 t in 2022.It is predicted that the carbon storage will be 121.56×105 t by 2027.④Restricting forestland and grassland to other land use types,continuously protecting arable land,is conducive to the increase of carbon storage in Huailai County.
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