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环渤海地区城市碳排放时空差异及影响因素分析

Temporal and spatial differences and influencing factors of urban carbon emissions in Bohai Rim region

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系统分析环渤海地区城市碳排放时空差异、探究其影响因素,对于正确制定碳排放相关政策、促进区域协同减排具有重要意义.基于IPCC碳排放系数计算2010-2020年环渤海地区43个城市的碳排放量,利用空间自相关方法研究其时空分布规律,构建地理加权回归(GMR)模型,探究各地区城市碳排放的时空差异.结果显示:①2010-2020年高碳排放区域的城市数量递减,碳排放量明显下降;②10年间环渤海地区43个城市的碳排放在空间上呈现显著正相关性及集聚性,且相关性呈波动上升趋势;③碳排放影响因素差异明显,影响大小为:产业结构>城镇化水平>建成区绿化覆盖率>市辖区建设用地.在时空格局上,产业结构对碳排放量的影响具有显著的空间依赖性;市辖区建设用地和城镇化水平的影响在空间格局上差异较大;建成区绿化覆盖率的影响程度逐渐向西南方向偏移.研究结果表明,应从优化产业结构、合理规划建设用地、增加建成区绿化覆盖率和提升城镇化发展质量等领域进一步加快实现环渤海地区的"双碳"目标.
It is of great significance to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal differences of urban carbon emissions in the Bohai Rim region and explore its influencing factors for correctly formulating carbon emission related policies and promoting regional coordinated emission reduction.Based on IPCC coefficients,the carbon emissions of 43 cities in the Bohai Rim region from 2010 to 2020 are calculated.The spatial autocorrelation method is used to study their spatial and temporal distribution,and a geographically weighted regression model is constructed to explore the temporal and spatial differences and causes of urban carbon emissions in different regions.The results show that:①from 2010 to 2020,the number of cities in high-carbon emission regions decreased,and carbon emissions decreased significantly.②The carbon emissions of 43 cities in the Bohai Rim region showed significant positive correlation and concentration in space,and the correlation showed a fluctuating upward trend.③The influencing factors of carbon emission were significantly different,and the influencing magnitude was as follows:industrial structure>urbanization level>green coverage rate of built-up areas>construction land in municipal districts.In the spatio-temporal pattern,the influence of industrial structure on carbon emissions had a significant spatial dependence.The influence of construction land and urbanization level on the spatial pattern of municipal districts was quite different.The influence degree of green coverage in built-up area gradually shifted to the southwest direction.The research results show that the goal of"double carbon"in the Bohai Rim region should be further accelerated from the aspects of optimizing industrial structure,rationally planning construction land,increasing green coverage in built-up areas and improving the quality of urbanization development.

Bohai Rim regionCarbon emissionsInfluencing factorsGeographical weighted regressionSpatiotemporal heterogeneity

张玉苛、牛建广、辛伯雄、王明琪、郭建明

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河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院/河北省地下人工环境智慧开发与管控技术创新中心,河北石家庄 050031

河北冀科工程项目管理有限公司,河北石家庄 050031

环渤海地区 碳排放 影响因素 地理加权回归 时空异质性

2024

河北省科学院学报
河北省科学院

河北省科学院学报

影响因子:0.176
ISSN:1001-9383
年,卷(期):2024.41(6)