风电功率预测方法与最新技术发展研究
On the Wind Power Prediction Methods and the Latest Technological Development
吴肃霜 1蔡小路 2李俊贤1
作者信息
- 1. 三峡新能源海上风电运维江苏有限公司,江苏 盐城 224008
- 2. 海峡发电有限责任公司,福建 福州 350000
- 折叠
摘要
首先介绍了风电功率预测的相关概念和基本框架,然后对最新的风电功率预测模型按照确定性预测和概率性预测进行了分类介绍.对两种类型功率预测模型所采用的预测算法、核心理论以及相应的评价指标进行了详细介绍,并指出了各类预测方法的优缺点.根据现有的功率预测模型所存在的缺陷,对未来风电功率概率预测的进一步发展进行了展望.
Abstract
The relevant concepts and the basic framework of the wind power prediction are introduced.Then,the latest wind power prediction models are classified and introduced according to deterministic models and probabilistic models.A detailed introduction is given to the prediction algorithms,core theories,and corresponding evaluation indicators adopted in these two types of models.The advantages and disadvantages of each prediction methods are pointed out.Considering the shortcomings of existing wind power prediction models,the future development of the probabilistic prediction of the wind power is discussed.
关键词
风电功率预测/确定性模型/概率模型Key words
wind power prediction/deterministic model/probabilistic model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据