A Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Output based on X12 Seasonal Adjustment and Neural Network
Accurate prediction of the output is the foundation for the grid connection planning of photovoltaic projects,which has a significant impact on the photovoltaic power consumption and the safe and economic operation of the power grids.A photovoltaic power output prediction method is proposed based on X12 seasonal adjustment and neural network.Firstly,the X12 seasonal adjustment method is adopted to decompose the photovoltaic output sequence into trend,sea-sonal periodic and random components.Then,each component is predicted with BP neural network and the final result is obtained with the component combination.At last,the actual output sequence of the photovoltaic project in Huichang County,Jiangxi Province is studied.Prediction results show that the proposed method is of high prediction accuracy.
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