Establishment of a Prognostic Prediction Model for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer Based on 18F-FDG PET/CT
Objective:To investigate the prognostic factors of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer(ES-SCLC)and establish a prognostic prediction model based on 18F-FDG PET/CT,to provide more refer-ences for subsequent clinical prognosis prediction.Methods:A total of 142 patients with ES-SCLC who un-derwent 18F-FDG PET/CT examination in our hospital from January 2017 to January 2020 were retrospectively enrolled.The clinical characteristics,18F-FDG PET/CT examination indicators and overall survival follow-up information were analyzed.Univariate and multivariate analyses of prognostic factors for ES-SCLC were per-formed.Establishment and prediction performance analysis of the prognostic prediction model for ES-SCLC based on 18F-FDG PET/CT.Results:The 142 patients were followed up for 15-34 months,with a median follow-up time of 24.0 months.A total of 85 patients died during follow-up,and the 1-year and 2-year over-all survival rates were 59.2％and 34.0％,respectively.According to the patients'age,bone metastasis,liver metastasis,total MTV of the whole body,and total TLG of the whole body,the patients were divided into two groups.There was a statistically significant difference in the median overall survival time between the sub-groups(P＜0.05).Univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis results showed that age,whether there was bone and liver metastasis,total MTV of the whole body 2.5 and total TLG of the whole body 2.5 were all independent prognostic factors for overall survival of patients with ES-SCLC(P＜0.05).A line chart model of the survival probability of patients at different time periods was constructed based on each independent risk factor,and the C-index was 0.763.The ROC curve was used to calculate the prediction of the survival status of patients at 1,2,and 3 years,respectively,and the area under the curve was 0.631,0.718,and 0.722,respectively.Conclusion:The prognosis of ES-SCLC is closely related to 18F-FDG PET/CT indicators in ad-dition to age and bone metastasis;using the above indicators to predict the survival status of patients has a good effect.
Extensive-stage small cell lung cancerOverall survival timePET/CTPrognosis
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