Analysis of Influencing Factors and Prediction Model for Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Complicated by Abdominal Infection
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)com-plicated by abdominal infection and to construct a prediction model,providing a reference for early prevention and treatment of AP with abdominal infection.Methods:Data from 103 AP patients admitted to Hefei Second People's Hospital between January 2021 and December 2023 were collected.Patients were divided into infec-ted and non-infected groups based on the presence of abdominal infection.Independent influencing factors for AP with abdominal infection were identified,and a prediction model was constructed.The predictive value of the model for abdominal infection was assessed using ROC curve analysis.Results:Among the 103 AP pa-tients,32.04%(33/103)had abdominal infections.The predominant pathogens were Gram-negative bacteri-a,with Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae showing high resistance to common antibiotics.Logistic re-gression identified age,length of hospital stay,APACHE Ⅱ score at admission,CRP,PCT,and total NK cell count as independent influencing factors for AP with abdominal infection(P＜0.05).ROC curve analysis showed the model's AUC was 0.843(95%CI0.792～0.896),with a sensitivity of 61.36%,specificity of 92.06%,Youden index of 0.534,Homser-Lemeshow test P value of 0.267,and concordance rate of 96.12%.Conclusion:The risk of abdominal infection in AP patients is relatively high and is associated with age,length of hospital stay,APACHE Ⅱ score at admission,CRP,PCT,and total NK cell count.The logis-tic prediction model effectively predicts the risk of abdominal infection in AP patients.
Acute pancreatitisAbdominal infectionPrediction model
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