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基于系统动力学的智能电网低碳效益动态评价研究

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从发电侧、电网侧和用电侧出发,分析了智能电网低碳效益动态评价的关键影响因素及其相互关系,绘制了各环节实现低碳效益的因果关系环路;在此基础上,基于系统动力学构建了SD仿真模型,刻画了我国智能电网实现低碳效益的动态反馈过程;根据我国电网实际和发展预期,运用该仿真模型对2011年至2020年的我国智能电网低碳效益进行了动态评价.通过算例分析,验证了该模型合理有效,操作性较性.评价结果也表明,我国智能电网具有显著的低碳效益.
Dynamic Evaluation of Smart Grid Low-Carbon Benefits Based on System Dynamics
This paper analyzes the key influencing factors of smart grid low-carbon benefits and their causal relationships from generation side,grid side and demand side respectively and draws the causal loop of each link achieving low-carbon benefits.Then,it establishes a simulation model based on system dynamics (SD) and describes the dynamic feedback process of achieving smart grid low-carbon benefits in China.Finally,considering the status quo and the expected development of smart grid in China,this model is applied to dynamically evaluate the low-carbon benefits of smart grid in China from 2011 to 2020.Calculation examples have verified that this model is reasonable,effective and practicable.The evaluation results also show that China's smart grid has remarkable low-carbon benefits.

system dynamicssmart gridlow-carbon benefitsdynamic evaluation

周黎莎、李晨

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国网四川省电力公司成都电业局,成都610041

国网四川省电力公司供电服务中心,成都610041

系统动力学 智能电网 低碳效益 动态评价

国家自然科学基金国家软科学研究计划

712710822012GXS4B064

2014

华东电力
华东电力试验研究院有限公司

华东电力

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.551
ISSN:1001-9529
年,卷(期):2014.42(1)
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