智能电网下发电侧运营管理风险元传递模型
Risk Element Transmission Model for Smart Grid Generation-Side Operation Management
李鹏 1李存斌 1胡金辉2
作者信息
- 1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206
- 2. 河南省开封市杞县供电局,河南开封475200
- 折叠
摘要
随着智能电网的建设,在发电侧更多的考虑利用可再生能源发电,以传统能源为主的发电侧运营面临双重挑战.一方面,由于燃料价格波动、电力负荷波动以及上网电价的波动,给发电侧的运营管理带来一定程度风险;另一方面,可再生能源发电具有间歇性和随机性,这些特性对发电侧的运营也具有一定的影响,因此,智能电网下发电侧运营管理风险的研究具有相当的现实意义和理论价值.在分析传统电网环境下的发电侧运营管理风险与智能电网带来挑战的基础上,鉴于风力发电的间歇性、区域负荷预测的不确定性、上网电价的不确定性以及燃料价格的不确定性,本文从风险元传递角度,构建发电侧效益风险传递模型,用来分析发电侧运营管理风险传递.最后,算例说明该模型的可行性.
Abstract
With the development of smart grid,more considerations are made about utilizing renewable energy in power generation; therefore,the generation-side operation management based on traditional powers are faced with the dual challenges.On the one hand,the fluctuation of fuel price,power load and feed-in tariff results in some risks; on the other hand,the intermittent and probabilistic features of renewable power generation produce some impacts.So,it is practically and theoretically valuable to research generation-side operation management risks.This paper describes the generation-side operation management risks in traditional grid and the challenges for smart grid.With regard to the intermittency of wind power,and uncertainty in regional load forecasting,feed-in tariff and fuel price,this paper constructs a model from the angle of risk element transmission in order to analyze the generation-side operation management risk transmission.Finally,calculation examples verify the feasibility of the proposed model.
关键词
智能电网/发电侧/运营管理/风险元传递Key words
smart grid/power generation side/operation management/risk element transmission引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71271084,71071054)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(13XS25)
出版年
2014
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据