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配电网规划中负荷预测实际问题探讨

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回顾了数年来近百个实际配电网规划项目和相关文献,从县级配电网和城市配电网规划中的负荷预测两方面,介绍了工程实践中常用的负荷预测方法,指出了实际负荷预测中的难点并提出了对策.对于县级配电网规划中的负荷预测,重点分析了一般负荷与点负荷分开预测的“大用户加自然增长法”;对于负荷分布预测,推荐采用基于政府部门用地规划的分类分区法和饱和密度法,并讨论了其关键参数的典型取值和相关软件工具的功能.
Actual Load Forecasting Problems in Distribution Network Planning
This paper reviews approximately one hundred actual distribution network planning projects and the related literature.Then the commonly used load forecasting methods are introduced form the two aspects:the county-level and urban-level distribution network planning,and the problems and solutions are presented.For the load forecasting of the county-level distribution network planning,the general load is separated from the point load for forecasting,namely,"large consumers and natural growth method" ; for spatial load forecasting of urban and rural distribution network planning,a classification and subarea method and a saturation density approach are recommended,and some typical values of key parameters and software tools are discussed.

distribution networkdistribution network planningload forecastingspatial load forecasting

张静、王主丁、张代红、朱伟

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重庆大学,重庆400044

重庆星能电气有限公司,重庆400039

国网浙江省电力公司嘉兴电力局,浙江嘉兴314000

配电网 配电网规划 负荷预测 空间负荷预测

2014

华东电力
华东电力试验研究院有限公司

华东电力

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.551
ISSN:1001-9529
年,卷(期):2014.42(2)
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