基于Logit模型的华东四省一市居民生活用电预测研究
Forecast Study on the Residential Electricity Consumption in East China Based on Logit Model
苏铭 1杨宗麟 2田磊1
作者信息
- 1. 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100038
- 2. 华东电网有限公司,上海200121
- 折叠
摘要
分析了华东居民家用电器及照明需求的变化规律及用电特征,利用Logit模型自下而上构建了居民生活用电模型,在验证模型稳健性的基础上,对未来华东居民生活用电进行了情景预测.
Abstract
This paper introduces the electricity consumption regularity and characteristics for the household electrical appliances and lighting in East China.Then the model for residential electricity consumption is constructed using Logit model.On the basis of testing the model robustness,the residential electricity consumption in East China is forecast.
关键词
居民生活用电/Logit模型/潜在用电水平Key words
residential electricity consumption/Logit model/potential residential electricity consumption引用本文复制引用
出版年
2014
NETL
NSTL
万方数据