Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Per Capita Electricity Consumption and Per Capita Electricity Load
Saturated load forecasting is crucial for the planning and development of urban and regional power grid.Accurate forecast of saturated load can effectively reduce the costs and improve the rationality,reliability and economy of upgrading power grid.The prediction of saturation scale and saturation time of-an East China city's total electricity consumption based on per capita electricity consumption and population forecast is presented in this paper.Traditional per capita electricity consumption method predicts the saturated load through dividing the total electricity consumption by maximum load utilization hours.However,it is difficult to estimate maximum load utilization hours.To solve the problem,a new method based on per capita electricity load is proposed in this paper.In this method,saturated per capita electricity load and saturated population can be obtained through logistic curve fitting,and then the saturated load of that East China city can be calculated through multiplying saturated per capita electricity load by saturated population.
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