Regional and National Electricity Consumption Forecast Based on State Grid Direct Power Supply
It can provide assistance to leaders at all levels in macroeconomic decision-making to forecast regional and national electricity consumption based on state grid direct power supply accurately (the relative error is within 0.5％).A large amount of data calculation has verified that it is impossible to find one method to guarantee accurate forecasts every month in a year,so this paper employs a variety of prediction methods,particularly RBF neural network and virtual variable regression method as the primary methods,and X-12-Arima,exponential smoothing and season deconstruction method as auxiliary methods.Through using the various and complementary methods,the best approach to find monthly forecast is defined.Thereupon the prediction model is established.The model information is adopted for the regional and national power consumption prediction based on the direct power supply in November 2013.The comparison between the actual power consumption and the prediction results indicates that the relative error of regional and national power consumption is 0.16 ％ and 0.48％,respectively.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
