基于SHCGE-SIC模型的上海市电力需求预测
Electric Power Demand Forecast of Shanghai Based on SHCGE-SIC Model
华月申 1王赛一 2孙莹莹 3张嘉堃
作者信息
- 1. 国网上海市电力公司浦东供电公司,上海200122
- 2. 上海合泽电力工程咨询有限公司,上海200433
- 3. 上海电力学院,上海200090
- 折叠
摘要
电力需求预测是能源预测、电力系统规划以及经济发展预测的重要组成基础.采用情景分析法,利用SHCGE-SIC模型开展上海市电力需求预测.首先构建基准情景,然后逐渐引入未来可能实施的重大政策对电力需求的影响,利用SHCGE-SIC得到与宏观判断相一致的结构判断和电力需求预测数据.
Abstract
Electric power demand forecast is an important foundation of energy forecast,power system planning and economic development forecast.This paper presents a SHCGE-SIC-based model using the scenario analysis method for Shanghai electric power demand forecast.Firstly,construct a benchmark scenario,then gradually introduce the future impacts on electricity demand by possibly implemented policies,and finally obtain the structural judgment and electric power demand forecast data using SHCGE-SIC,consistent with the macroscopic judgment.
关键词
SHCGE-SIC模型/基准情景/电力需求预测Key words
SHCGE-SIC model/benchmark scenario/electric power demand forecast引用本文复制引用
出版年
2014
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据