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基于SHCGE-SIC模型的上海市电力需求预测

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电力需求预测是能源预测、电力系统规划以及经济发展预测的重要组成基础.采用情景分析法,利用SHCGE-SIC模型开展上海市电力需求预测.首先构建基准情景,然后逐渐引入未来可能实施的重大政策对电力需求的影响,利用SHCGE-SIC得到与宏观判断相一致的结构判断和电力需求预测数据.
Electric Power Demand Forecast of Shanghai Based on SHCGE-SIC Model
Electric power demand forecast is an important foundation of energy forecast,power system planning and economic development forecast.This paper presents a SHCGE-SIC-based model using the scenario analysis method for Shanghai electric power demand forecast.Firstly,construct a benchmark scenario,then gradually introduce the future impacts on electricity demand by possibly implemented policies,and finally obtain the structural judgment and electric power demand forecast data using SHCGE-SIC,consistent with the macroscopic judgment.

SHCGE-SIC modelbenchmark scenarioelectric power demand forecast

华月申、王赛一、孙莹莹、张嘉堃

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国网上海市电力公司浦东供电公司,上海200122

上海合泽电力工程咨询有限公司,上海200433

上海电力学院,上海200090

SHCGE-SIC模型 基准情景 电力需求预测

2014

华东电力
华东电力试验研究院有限公司

华东电力

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.551
ISSN:1001-9529
年,卷(期):2014.42(11)
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