首页|基于模糊聚类算法的负荷预测研究

基于模糊聚类算法的负荷预测研究

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采用模糊聚类算法建立模型,进行负荷预测的研究.负荷预测方法为时间负荷预测法,进行了大量的搜集历史数据工作,并对历史数据进行加工处理,提炼出负荷变化的若干种典型模式.然后,再通过待测环境特征和历史环境特征之间的比较,判断出与哪个历史类最为接近,从而判断该时段的电力负荷与历史类所对应的预测变量具有相同的变化模式.最后,利用影响负荷变化的相关因素的未来状态去判断未来负荷变化属于哪种模式,从而达到预测的目的.针对某地区的负荷预测中,提出了以模糊因果聚类理论为基础的方案.
Based on the fuzzy clustering algorithm to model for load forecasting
In this paper,fuzzy clustering algorithm to model for load forecasting.Load forecasting method in this article is the time load forecasting method,so this paper collect large amount of historical data,and historical data processing,to extract some kind of load change typical pattern.Then,the test environment,characterized by the features and the comparison between the historical environment,and which determine the closest history class,to determine if the time of power load and the corresponding prediction history class variables have the same pattern of change.Finally,the impact of changes in load factors related to the future of the state to determine which model is the future load changes,so as to achieve the purpose of prediction.In this paper,a lot of practice on fuzzy forecasting method explored and tried,and finally succeeded in fuzzy theory to load forecasting in a region,we propose a fuzzy clustering causal theory-based programs.

load forecastingfuzzy clusteringsimilarity matrixfuzzy feature

郁悦、蔡韧、张吉盛

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国网上海市电力公司市区供电公司,上海200080

负荷预测 模糊聚类 相似矩阵 模糊特征

2014

华东电力
华东电力试验研究院有限公司

华东电力

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.551
ISSN:1001-9529
年,卷(期):2014.42(z1)
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