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IDHEAS人因事件相关性分析方法应用研究

Research on the Application of IDHEAS Human Event Dependency Analysis Method

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相关性问题是人员可靠性分析(HRA)中重点考虑的问题之一,但现行应用的相关性分析方法存在基础数据匮乏,认知理论基础不足,影响因素水平选取原则不明确等问题,导致分析结果过于保守,稳定性较差.为此,美国核管理委员会(NRC)基于人员失误事件综合分析系统(IDHEAS)行为认知模型建立了IDHEAS相关性模型,并提出了IDHEAS相关性分析方法(IDHEAS-DEP).本文对IDHEAS-DEP开展了系统性的研究,对实施流程和要点进行分析归纳,选取一级概率安全分析(PSA)典型C类人因事件组进行了实例分析,并与其他相关性处理方法进行了定量比较.理论研究和实例分析表明,IDHEAS-DEP能在一定程度上解决现有相关性分析方法基础理论不足以及分析结果过于保守的问题,且该方法的筛选分析普适性更高,在工程上更具备可实施性.但其仍需解决与其他HRA方法的接口问题,最小联合人误概率取值的确定也是该方法未来需要完善的方向.
Dependency is one of the most important issues in human reliability analysis(HRA).However,the existing dependency analysis methods have some problems,such as lack of basic data,insufficient cognitive theoretical foundation,and unclear selection principles of influencing factor levels,which lead to overly conservative analysis results and poor stability.For this reason,the Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC)of the United States established the IDHEAS dependency model based on the behavioral cognitive model of IDHEAS,and put forward the IDHEAS dependency analysis method(IDHEAS-DEP).In this paper,IDHEAS-DEP is systematically studied,the implementation process and key points are analyzed and summarized,and a typical category C human factor event group of Level 1 probabilistic safety analysis(PSA)is selected for example analysis,and a quantitative comparison is made with other dependency analysis methods.Theoretical research and case analysis show that IDHEAS-DEP can solve the problems of insufficient basic theory and conservative analysis results of existing dependency analysis methods to a certain extent,and the screening analysis of this method is more universal and practical in engineering.However,it still needs to solve the interface problem with other HRA methods,and the determination of the minimum joint human error probability is also the direction that this method needs to be improved in the future.

Human reliability analysis(HRA)DependencyIntegrade human event analysis system(IDHEAS)

郑腾蛟、张佳佳、侯捷、徐云龙、许青青

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中国核电工程有限公司,北京,100840

生态环境部核与辐射安全中心,北京,102488

首都经济贸易大学,北京,100070

人员可靠性 相关性 人员失误事件综合分析系统(IDHEAS)

2024

核动力工程
中国核动力研究设计院

核动力工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.3
ISSN:0258-0926
年,卷(期):2024.45(6)