首页|基于自适应代理模型的非能动系统可靠性分析

基于自适应代理模型的非能动系统可靠性分析

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许多先进反应堆采用非能动设计来提高安全性,开展可靠性分析研究是推动其广泛应用的重要环节.由于非能动安全系统依赖于自然循环等物理法则实现系统功能,更容易受到不确定性因素的影响.热工水力过程失效是导致非能动系统失效的主要原因,而传统的故障树等方法无法分析这类失效概率.本文通过热工水力结果训练代理模型,并基于自适应抽样策略有效减少热工水力程序调用次数,通过高度非线性测试函数验证了算法的计算效率,并应用于某一体化压水堆的非能动余热排出系统.计算结果表明:采用自适应克里金模型相比于传统蒙特卡罗与传统克里金模型方法具有更高的计算效率.
Passive system reliability assessment based on an adaptive surrogate model
Passive design is adopted by many advanced reactors to enhance safety,and reliability assessment is im-portant for its wide application.A passive safety system is more susceptible to uncertainties because its work de-pends on physical laws such as natural circulation.Thermal hydraulics process failure is the main contribution to passive system failure;however,traditional methods such as fault tree analysis are unavailable for analyzing this type of failure possibility.In this study,a surrogate model is trained with thermal-hydraulic simulation results.Fur-thermore,the adaptive sampling strategy is applied to effectively reduce the call times of the thermal hydraulics pro-gram.The algorithm is validated using a highly nonlinear test function and then applied to a passive residual heat removal system of an integral-type pressurized water reactor.The calculation results indicate that the adaptive Krig-ing model has higher computational efficiency than traditional Monte Carlo and Kriging model methods.

passive safety systemreliabilitysurrogate modelprobabilistic safety analysisintegral pressurized water reactorRELAP5adaptive sampling

王晨阳、夏庚磊、彭敏俊、徐青蓝、陈果

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哈尔滨工程大学 核安全与仿真技术国防重点学科实验室,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001

中国核动力研究设计院 核反应堆系统设计技术重点实验室,四川 成都 610213

非能动安全系统 可靠性 代理模型 概率安全分析 一体化压水堆 RELAP5 自适应抽样

2024

哈尔滨工程大学学报
哈尔滨工程大学

哈尔滨工程大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.655
ISSN:1006-7043
年,卷(期):2024.45(2)
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