Comparation among differences methods of heat wave events estimation
Heat waves have become one of the most harmful natural disasters in the world,and in recent years,the world has suffered from increasingly record-breaking heat wave events.There is no unified definition of heat waves in the aca-demic community,and this study discusses the controversial baseline selection of heat waves(referring to climate background).Based on the daily average temperature data of 692 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2022,three methods,fixed baseline,running baseline,and increasing baseline,were compared using the quantile method to compare the four key heat wave indices,including outbreak frequency,duration,maximum intensity,and recurrence days.The results showed that due to the impact of global warming,the fixed baseline method(selecting 1951 to 1980 as the relative threshold for climate background calculation)tends to improve the estimation of the probability of current heat wave occurrence,while the increasing baseline method(using all historical data as the basis for climate background calculation)and the running baseline method(using the for-ward thirty years of each year as the basis for baseline calculation)can consider the impact of stable temperature changes.The heat wave index obtained by the three baseline calculation methods only showed significant differences in absolute values,while there is a high degree of consistency in the long-term trend and spatial distribution of the heat wave indexes.Basing on the adap-tation characteristics of organisms to the environment in long-term evolution,we suggest using the running baseline method to determine the climate background over a period of time as the base line for heat waves,with a focus on the response and ecolog-ical impact of organisms caused by heat waves.
万方数据
维普
