A nomogram model for predicting survival rate in infants with retinoblastoma
Aim:To construct a nomogram model for predicting survival rate in infants with retinoblastoma(RB).Methods:A total of 929 cases of RB in infancy(0-3 years old)from 2004 to 2019 in SEER datebase were collected as training set,Cox regression analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of survival rate,and nomogram for predicting 3-,5-,and 10-year survival rate was constructed based on the regression results.A total of 111 cases of infants with RB diag-nosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 2010 to 2019 were collected as the external validation set.The predictive value of nomogram model was evaluated using C-index,ROC curve,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:With death due to RB as the endpoint event,tumor basal diameter≥15 mm,T3 stage,T4 stage,M1 stage,and combination of radiotherapy and chemotherapy were the risk factors,with HR(95%CI)of 3.049(1.459-7.782),6.341(1.811-12.372),9.554(6.054～13.989),5.087(1.602-16.155),10.452(1.180-19.598).The C-index(95%CI)of the nomogram model in the training set and in the external validation set,was 0.948(0.923-0.973)and 0.858(0.728-0.987),respectively.In the training set,AUC(95%CI)for the prediction of 3-,5-,and 10-year surviv-al rate was 0.966(0.946-0.986),0.960(0.930-0.990),0.934(0.906-0.962),respectively,in the external valida-tion set was 0.825(0.769-0.881),0.843(0.781-0.905),0.868(0.796-0.940),respectively.The calibration curve overlapped well with the standard curve in the training set and the external validation set,and DCA showed that the predic-tive model had the desired clinical effect.Conclusion:The nomogram constructed in this study can be used for the predic-tion of survival rate of infants with RB,and can provide a reference for individualized clinical treatment.
万方数据
维普
