Impact of novel corona-virus infection pandemic prevention and control on the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Henan Province based on interrupted time series analysis
Impact of novel corona-virus infection pandemic prevention and control on the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Henan Province based on interrupted time series analysis
Aim:To evaluate the impact of novel corona-virus infection pandemic prevention and control on the preva-lence of hand-foot-mouth disease(HMFD)using interruption time series analysis.Methods:Data of the incidence of HMFD from January 2013 to September 2022 from the statutory infectious disease reporting system of Henan Provincial Health Commission were collected.The data from January 2013 to June 2019 were used to construct the ARIMA prediction model;the data from July 2019 to December 2019 were used to verify the predictive performance of the model.Based on the predic-ted data from January 2020 to September 2022(the pandemic)and the reported data during the same period,2 evaluation methods(step change and pulse change)were used to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the incidence of HMFD.Re-sults:ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was the optimal model,MA1 was 0.43(t=3.14,P＜0.001)and SMA1 was-0.62(t=6.94,P＜0.001),AIC,AICC and BIC were the smallest,and LL was the largest.The mean absolute percent error be-tween the predicted value based the model and the true value was 10.20％.The estimated step change was-3 471(95％CI was-11 794-4 852),and the estimated pulse change was 9 210(95％CI was 3 153-15 268)per month.Conclusion:The incidence of HFMD in Henan Province showed a decreasing trend under the intervention of novel corona-virus infection pandemic.
关键词
中断时间序列分析/自回归综合移动平均模型/新冠病毒感染疫情/手足口病/河南省
Key words
interruption time series analysis/autoregressive comprehensive moving average model/novel corona-virus-infection pandemic/hand-foot-mouth disease/Henan Province
维普
万方数据