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中国试点碳市场交易价格的影响因素及驱动路径

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碳价是碳市场运行的核心问题.厘清碳市场交易价格机制的内在逻辑,是推动形成有效价格信号,充分发挥碳市场资源配置作用和价格发现功能的前提和关键.文章基于中国八个碳交易试点市场的样本数据,重点从需求侧出发,借助"规模-结构-技术"分析框架,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)对试点碳市场价格的影响机制进行综合研判.研究发现:由于回弹效应的存在,资本投入引致的技术效应可通过规模效应和结构效应影响碳排放,进而影响碳价;在排除资本偏向型技术进步可能带来的碳回弹效应后,较低的经济发展水平和劳动偏向型技术进步是引致碳低价的重要力量;在一定条件下,经济发展水平和能源偏向型技术进步之间存在替代效应,与其他条件共同作用可以引致低水平碳价.
Influencing Factors and Driving Paths of China's Pilot Carbon Market Trading Price
The carbon price represents a core issue in the operation of the carbon market.Clarifying the internal logic of the carbon market trading price mechanism is the premise and key to promote the for-mation of effective price signals and give full play to the resource allocation and price discovery func-tions of the carbon market.Drawing on sample data from eight carbon trading pilot markets in China,this paper focuses on the demand side and employs a"scale-structure-technology"analytical frame-work.It utilizes fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to comprehensively evaluate the influence mechanism on pilot carbon market prices.The study finds that due to the rebound effect,the technological effect induced by capital investment can influence carbon emissions through scale and structural effects,thereby affecting carbon prices.After excluding the potential carbon rebound effect arising from capital-biased technological progress,a lower level of economic development and labor-bi-ased technological progress are important forces leading to low carbon prices.Under certain condi-tions,there exists a substitution effect between the level of economic development and energy-biased technological progress,which together with other factors can lead to low carbon prices.

carbon trading pricepilot carbon marketconfiguration analysis

梁中、叶秋蓉、刘桓君

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安徽财经大学工商管理学院,安徽蚌埠 233030

碳交易价格 试点碳市场 组态分析

2025

合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)
合肥工业大学

合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)

影响因子:0.431
ISSN:1008-3634
年,卷(期):2025.39(1)