Probability analysis and prediction associated with nuclear meltdown accident risk evaluation
This paper uses logistic regression model(LRM),linear discriminant model(LDM)and sup-port vector machine(SV M)to evaluate the safety performance of nuclear reactors in nuclear meltdown accidents from both internal and external factors.For each model,the relevant influencing factors of nuclear reactor and the probability of nuclear meltdown accident are investigated by mathematical sta-tistics theory.It is found that the external factors tend to dominate the internal factors and play an important role in the nuclear meltdown accident risk.The model analysis and prediction results in this paper can provide reference for nuclear reactor engineers and related decision makers in the site selec-tion,design,construction and operation of nuclear reactors.