A structured assessment method of human error probability for chemical systems
At present,the essential reliability of chemical equipment has been increasingly improved with a development of automation and information technology,and human error has become the main factor over chemical accidents.Hence it is necessary to conduct human reliability analysis(HRA)on chemical systems to ensure their safe and stable operations.However,the chemical systems have a high non-linearity and complex coupling.The existing HRA technologies cannot be directly applied on them,and the effectiveness and accuracy of analysis results are poor.Therefore,this work proposes a structured assessment method of human error probability for chemical systems.This method particularly combines the human-hazard and operability analysis(human-HAZOP)with Bayesian network(BN).Firstly,according to the operation manual,process flow diagram,and other information of a chemical system,the tasks are summarized for human-HAZOP and further subdivided into several operation steps and behaviors.Secondly,meaningful deviations are selected using the operation behaviors and guide words.Accordingly,the potential causes,possible consequences,existing measures,and suggested measures are analyzed to form a structured human-HAZOP report for this chemical system.Thirdly,based on the human-HAZOP results,the potential causes and possible consequences are considered as leaf nodes and root nodes,respectively.A structured BN model is finally established to calculate the human error probability in the chemical system.The esterification reaction of one methyl-acrylate virtual simulation factory is taken as a test case.The probability of human error for the esterification reaction is calculated to be 0.0004 and the main human error behavior is maintenance staff stealing work omission of maintenance staff.Traditional CREAM analysis of this chemical system results in human error probability results of 0.0001 to 0.01.Results show that this structured method can effectively and accurately assess the human error probability of chemical systems in comparison with the traditional CREAM.
chemical systemshuman error probabilitystructured assessmenthuman-hazard and operability analysis(human-HAZOP)Bayesian network
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