基于子集模拟与风险参数耦合的粉煤气化管道可靠性分析
Reliability Analysis of Coal Gas Pipeline based on Coupling of Subset Simulation and Risk Parameters
郭铭靖1
作者信息
摘要
对粉煤气化管道进行可靠性分析,研究服役管道各参数对失效的影响规律,可以有效降低坍塌、断裂等事故的发生频率.针对煤气管道可能出现断裂和塑性坍塌问题,采用子集模拟技术对粉煤气化管道的可靠性进行评估,分析了管道小概率失效的关键因素,对管道内压、缺陷深度和材料韧性进行显著性分析,并探讨不同应变硬化模型对评估结果的影响,探讨了各关键参数变化对系统产生的耦合效应,综合评估煤气管道在塑性坍塌状态和断裂状态下的系统失效概率.结果表明,管道失效概率随着腐蚀深度、裂纹深度和长度以及管道内压增加而增大,管道的系统可靠性随之降低;在相同条件下,应变硬化指数对管道的可靠性分析结果有显著影响;断裂和塑性坍塌的风险程度与管道壁厚成正比关系.
Abstract
Conducting reliability analysis on coal gasification pipelines and studying the impact of various parameters on failure could effectively reduce the frequency of accidents such as collapse and fracture.In response to the possible problems of fracture and plastic collapse in gas pipelines,subset simulation technology was used to evaluate the reliability of pulverized coal gasification pipelines.The key factors for the low probability failure of pipelines were analyzed,and the internal pressure,defect depth,and material toughness of pipelines were significantly analyzed.The influence of different strain hardening models on the evaluation results was explored,and the coupling effects of various key parameter changes on the system were studied.The system failure probability of gas pipelines under plastic collapse and fracture states was comprehensively evaluated.The results indicate that the probability of pipeline failure increases with the increase of corrosion depth,crack depth and length,and internal pressure of the pipeline,resulting in a corresponding decrease in the system reliability of the pipeline.Under the same conditions,the selection of strain hardening index has a significant impact on the reliability analysis results of pipelines.In addition,the risk of fracture and plastic collapse is positively correlated with the thickness of the pipeline wall.
关键词
粉煤气化管道/子集模拟/参数耦合/可靠性分析Key words
Coal gasification pipeline/Subset simulation/Parameter coupling/Reliability analysis引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据