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湿润地区中小河流山洪预报方法研究与应用

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针对湿润地区中小河流,提出2套山洪预报方案:一是对于有资料地区,建立基于新安江模型的山洪预报方案;二是对于无资料或资料缺乏地区,采用API-Nash模型,即采用降雨-径流经验相关法进行产流预报,采用Nash模型进行汇流预报.以皖南山区屯溪流域为例,分别用2套方案对流域的次洪过程进行模拟.研究结果表明:2套方案均取得良好的应用效果,洪量合格率比较一致;对于洪峰合格率和确定性系数,新安江模型的模拟结果优于API-Nash模型.
Forecasting methods for flash floods in medium and small rivers in humid regions and their applications
Two methods were adopted in this study to forecast flash floods in medium and small rivers in humid regions; the Xin'anjiang model was applied to areas with sufficient historical data, and the API-Nash model, in which the rainfall-runoff relationship method is used for runoff yield forecasting and the Nash runoff model is used for flow concentration forecasting, was applied to ungaged areas or data-deficient regions. A case study was conducted in the Tunxi Watershed in the mountainous area of southern Anhui Province, using the two models to simulate flood processes in the watershed. The results show that both models had favorable simulation results. They presented similar accuracy in calculating the qualified rate of the flood volume, and the Xin 'anjiang model had higher accuracy than the API-Nash model in calculating the qualified rate of the flow peak and the deterministic coefficient.

medium and small riversflash floodforecasting and early warningXin'anjiang modelNash modelrainfall-runoff relationshipTunxi watershed

叶金印、吴勇拓、李致家、常露

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河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

淮河流域气象中心,安徽蚌埠233040

山东省电力工程咨询院,山东济南250013

中小河流 山洪 预报预警 新安江模型 Nash模型 降雨-径流相关 屯溪流域

国家自然科学基金淮河流域气象开放研究基金公益性行业(气象)科研专项

41101017HRM201002GYHY201006037

2012

10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2012.06.004

河海大学学报(自然科学版)
河海大学

河海大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.803
ISSN：1000-1980
年,卷(期)：2012.(6)
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