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雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域水文过程及其对气候变化的响应

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以雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域为研究对象，针对缺资料流域的水文计算和预测问题，采用流域水文模型THREW，用地面气象观测、遥感植被覆盖和积雪面积等资料，基于断面水文监测数据对模型进行率定，应用CMIP5数据对径流演变进行预估。结果表明：对于雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域， THREW 模型对1991—1995年率定期月径流模拟的纳什效率系数为0.75，对1996—2000年验证期月径流模拟的纳什效率系数为0.76；IPCC AR5所设置在CO2排放量最大的情况下，径流明显增加。
Study on hydrological process in upper basin of Brahmaputra River from Nuxia Hydrological Station and its response to climate change
Considering the hydrological calculation and prediction of ungauged basins, a distributed hydrological model, the THREW model, was adopted to study the upper basin of the Brahmaputra River from the Nuxia Hydrological Station. Surface meteorological observation, remote sensing of vegetation cover, snow cover area, and section hydrological monitoring data were used to calibrate the model, and the latest CMIP5 data were used to estimate the runoff evolution. The results showed that, in the upper basin of the Brahmaputra River from the Nuxia Hydrological Station, the Nash?Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of monthly runoff simulation of the calibration period from 1991 to 1995 was 0. 75, the coefficient of monthly runoff simulation of the validation period from 1996 to 2000 was 0. 76, and the runoff markedly increased when the CO2 discharge in the AR5 of IPCC was maximal.

ungauged basinrepresentative elementary watershedclimate changerunoff evolutionhydrological process simulation of basinupper basin of Brahmaputra River from Nuxia Hydrological Station

徐冉、铁强、代超、胡宏昌、田富强

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清华大学水利水电工程系，北京 100084

缺资料流域 代表性单元流域 气候变化 径流演变 流域水文过程模拟 雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

U120223251190092

2015

10.3876/j.issn.10001980.2015.04.002

河海大学学报(自然科学版)
河海大学

河海大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.803
ISSN：1000-1980
年,卷(期)：2015.(4)
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