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京津冀地区近50a降水时空变化分析

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为了明确京津冀地区近年来降水时空变化特征,使用线性回归、空间插值以及M-K显著性检验、相关性分析、小波分析等方法,结合地区DEM数据,对近50a降水逐日、逐月数据进行处理分析。结果显示,京津冀地区年降水量呈不显著增加趋势,且存在平均周期约20a的周期性变化;年降水的不稳定性在增强,除春季外,其余季节降水的不稳定性均在增强;夏季降水与年降水具有最强的相关性;年降水量呈现自东南沿海向西北内陆递减规律,春季、秋季、冬季降水呈现两侧多、中间少的特征,夏季降水与年降水分布特征一致;绝大部分地区年降水量呈增加趋势,增幅的空间分布与年降水量的空间分布趋势相反,夏季降水与年降水在空间上仍然具有最高的一致性。
Spatiotemporal Changes of Precipitation Across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 1973 to 2022
In order to clarify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation across Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent years,the daily and monthly precipitation data in recent 50 years are processed and analyzed by using mathematical statistics,spatial interpolation and M-K significance analysis,combined with regional DEM data.The results show that the annual precipitation shows no significant increase trend,and there is a periodic change with an average period of about 20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;The instability of annual precipitation is increasing,and the instability of precipitation in other seasons is increasing except in spring.Summer precipitation has the strongest correlation with annual precipitation.The annual precipitation is decreasing from the southeast coast to the northwest inland.The precipitation in spring,autumn and winter is characterized by more on both sides and lower in the middle,and the distribution characteristics of summer precipitation are consistent with those of annual precipitation.The annual precipitation in most areas shows an increasing trend,and the spatial distribution of the increase is opposite to that of the annual precipitation,and there is still the highest consistency between summer precipitation and annual precipitation.

spatiotemporal variation of precipitationspatial interpolationM-K significance testwavelet analysisBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

纪贺、殷睿、尹海姣、张振卿

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天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院,天津 300387

天津师范大学京津冀生态文明发展研究院,天津 300387

降水时空变化 空间插值 M-K显著性检验 小波分析 京津冀地区

第三次新疆综合科学考察子课题

2022XJKK0603-03

2024

海河水利
水利部海河水利委员会

海河水利

影响因子:0.21
ISSN:1004-7328
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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