首页|珠三角地区近20年城镇化与景观生态安全耦合协调分析

珠三角地区近20年城镇化与景观生态安全耦合协调分析

Coupling and coordination analysis of urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological security in the Pearl River Delta in the past 20 years

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针对城镇化进程加快导致的珠三角地区生态景观胁迫程度日趋严峻,亟需加强区域生态保护的现状,构建新型城镇化与景观生态安全的耦合协调模型,定量测度 2000-2020 年珠三角地区城镇空间扩展与景观生态安全耦合协调时空格局以及发展状态,运用多元回归分析和灰色预测模型揭示其驱动机理,并预测 2040 年城镇空间扩展和景观生态安全耦合的发展趋势.结果表明:珠三角地区 9 市城镇化与景观生态安全的耦合协调度在 20 年间呈现缓慢波动上升的趋势,耦合协调度由 2000 年的 0.305～0.436 升至 2020 年的 0.385～0.545,现处于拮抗耦合阶段,未来 20 年将继续向着协调同步、有序发展的方向前进.珠三角地区经济发展不平衡,城镇开发建设和生态环境保护难以同步发展,景观生态状况不乐观,生态环境滞后型的地市逐渐增多,尚未全面形成良好的协调发展状态.对外开放程度、经济发展水平、科技投入水平等因素对耦合协调度的影响较为显著(P<0.05),今后对于区域可持续发展需要加强耦合协调的机理研究,持续关注城镇空间拓展与景观生态安全的协调发展趋势及特征.
In view of the increasingly severe ecological landscape stress in the Pearl River Delta region caused by the accelerated urbanization process,it is urgent to strengthen regional ecological protection.A coupling and coordination model between new urbanization and landscape ecological security was constructed,and the spatiotemporal pattern and development status of urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological security coupling and coordination in the Pearl River Delta region from 2000 to 2020 were quantitatively measured.The driving mechanism was revealed by using multiple regression analysis and a grey prediction model,and the development trend of urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological security coupling in 2040 was predicted.The results showed that:1)The coupling coordination degree between urbanization and landscape ecological security in nine cities in the Pearl River Delta had shown a slow fluctuating upward trend over the 20 years,with the range of coupling coordination degree increasing from 0.305-0.436 in 2000 to 0.385-0.545 in 2020.It was currently in the antagonistic coupling stage,and would continue to move towards coordinated,synchronized,and orderly development in the next 20 years.2)The economic development in the Pearl River Delta was unbalanced,and urban development and ecological environment protection were difficult to develop simultaneously.The landscape ecological situation was not optimistic,the number of cities with a lagging ecological environment was increasing,and a good coordinated development had not yet been fully formed.3)The degree of openness,level of economic development,and investment in science and education funds had a significant impact on the coupling coordination degree(P<0.05).In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the research on the mechanism of coupling and coordination for regional sustainable development and continue to pay attention to the trend and characteristics of coordinated development between urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological security.

urbanizationlandscape ecological securitycoupling coordination degreedriving mechanismGM(1,1)prediction modelPearl River Delta region

吴大放、甘梓莹、宁芳洁、何晓莉、郑嘉欣、赖焕明

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广州大学地理科学与遥感学院

北京大学地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室

城镇化 景观生态安全 耦合协调度 驱动机制 GM(1,1)预测模型 珠三角地区

国家自然科学基金北京大学地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室开放基金广东省普通高等学校创新团队项目(人文社会科学)广东省普通高等学校特色创新类项目(人文社科类)(2022)广州市教育局高校科研项目(2022)广州大学省级大学生创新训练计划(2021)广州大学研究生课程思政示范建设项目(2023)

4177109662023WCXTD0192022WTSCX087202235269S2021110780026

2024

10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230279

环境工程技术学报
中国环境科学研究院

环境工程技术学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1
ISSN：1674-991X
年,卷(期)：2024.14(1)
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