首页|基于气象条件综合指数的天津市臭氧污染影响因素贡献评估

基于气象条件综合指数的天津市臭氧污染影响因素贡献评估

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利用 2017-2021 年天津市近地面O3 日最大 8 h滑动平均浓度(O3_8 h)浓度和同时期气象数据,基于统计学方法构建天津市本地化O3 气象条件综合指数,并据此评估气象和人为影响因素对O3 浓度和超标天数的贡献情况.研究表明:基于日最高气温、海平面气压、平均风速、相对湿度、边界层厚度、短波辐射通量可以较好地建立O3 气象条件综合指数,与实况O3 浓度相关系数可以达到 0.86(P<0.01),高于任何单一气象要素对O3 浓度的影响;基于该指数评估,2017-2021 年天津市O3 浓度呈先升后降趋势,2021 年较 2017 年下降 15.9%,其中人为因素贡献了O3 浓度下降的 10.0%,气象因素贡献了 5.9%.O3 超标天数变化与浓度变化趋势一致,且超标天数中以轻度污染为主.2018 年轻度污染占比高是导致该年O3 超标天数最高的主要原因;2021 较 2017 年天津市O3 超标天数减少了 36 d,其中气象条件导致的超标天数减少 20 d,人为因素导致的超标天数减少 16 d.对导致不同污染等级超标天数变化的影响要素分析显示,气象条件是导致O3 轻度污染天数减少的主要因素,而人为管控措施的贡献主要体现在中度污染天数的减少.
Assessment of the contribution of factors affecting ozone pollution in Tianjin based on meteorological composite index
By using the near-ground ozone concentrations and simultaneous meteorological data in Tianjin from 2017 to 2021,a localized ozone meteorological composite index was constructed based on statistical methods,and the contributions of meteorological and anthropogenic factors to changes in ozone concentration and exceedance days were assessed.The results showed that the ozone meteorological composite index could be well established based on the daily maximum temperature,sea level pressure,average wind speed,relative humidity,boundary layer thickness and short-wave radiation flux,and the correlation coefficient with the actual ozone concentration could reach 0.86(P<0.01),which was higher than any single meteorological factor.Based on the evaluation of this index,the ozone concentration in Tianjin showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend from 2017 to 2021,with a decrease of 15.9%in 2021 compared to 2017.Anthropogenic factors played a dominant role in the concentration change,contributing 10.0%,while meteorological factors contributed 5.9%.The change in the number of exceedance days in the five years was consistent with the trend of concentration change,and mild pollution was the main type of exceedance days.The high proportion of mild pollution in 2018 was the main reason for the highest number of ozone exceedance days in that year.The number of ozone exceedance days in Tianjin decreased by 36 days from 2017 to 2021,with meteorological conditions contributing to a decrease of 20 days and anthropogenic factors contributing to a decrease of 16 days.The analysis of the factors affecting changes in the number of exceedance days at different pollution levels showed that meteorological conditions were the main factor leading to a decrease in mild pollution days,while the contribution of anthropogenic control measures was mainly reflected in the reduction of moderate pollution weather.

meteorological composite indexozonemeteorological factorsanthropogenic factorsTianjin

李敏姣、温娟、尹立峰、张雷波、孙蕊、冯真真、李怀明

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天津市生态环境科学研究院

天津环科环境规划科技发展有限公司

气象条件指数 O3 气象因素 人为影响贡献 天津市

中国工程院院地合作项目天津市科技计划

2020C0-000220YFZCSN01000

2024

环境工程技术学报
中国环境科学研究院

环境工程技术学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1
ISSN:1674-991X
年,卷(期):2024.14(2)
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