首页|异质性技术冲击对减污降碳协同增效的动态影响与福利分析

异质性技术冲击对减污降碳协同增效的动态影响与福利分析

Dynamic Impact and Welfare Analysis of Heterogeneous Technology Shocks on Pollution and Carbon Reduction Synergies

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加速推进减污降碳协同增效是落实新发展阶段生态文明建设的根本要求,是促进环境保护和经济发展协同共进、提高资源利用效率、推动经济转型升级的重要抓手.本文构建了一个包含五部门的封闭经济一般均衡模型,模拟在总量控制、碳税、目标强度三种不同环境政策情景下,中国宏观经济和生态环境质量对生产技术、政策强度、减排创新技术冲击的动态效应,并构建社会福利函数,对比了不同冲击下,减污降碳政策对中国居民福利损失的差异.研究结果表明:在中国增加适当强度的环境政策可以达到协同增效的目的,表现为经济增长、大气污染物下降和碳储量持续降低,同时"降碳"效应优于"减污"效应.总量控制情景下经济产出应对外生冲击的表现更好,碳税政策情景下减污降碳的协同效应更为显著.在总量控制情景下,最终品生产技术冲击对能源消费市场产生结构效应,而在碳税和目标强度两种政策情景下的结构效应并不明显.通过社会福利函数考察居民在三种政策情景下的社会福利水平,三种政策情景社会福利由高到低依次为:总量控制、目标强度、碳税政策.基于研究结论,本文建议现有环境治理体系应从"分而治之"向"合而治之"转变,环境治理政策应从"强约束"向"软激励"转变,环境治理手段应从"末端治理"向"源头管控"转变.
Accelerating the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is a fundamental requirement for im-plementing the construction of ecological civilization in the new development stage,and it is an important tool for pro-moting the synergy of environmental protection and economic development,improving the efficiency of resource utili-zation,and promoting economic transformation and upgrading.This paper constructs a closed economy general equi-librium model with five sectors to simulate the dynamic effects of China's macroeconomic and ecological environment quality on the shocks of production technology,policy intensity,and emission reduction innovation technology under three different environmental policy scenarios:total control,carbon tax,and target intensity,and constructs a social welfare function to compare the differences in the welfare loss of Chinese residents under different shocks of the poli-cy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction.The results of the study show that:increasing the appropriate intensity of environmental policies in China can achieve synergistic efficiency,which is manifested in economic growth,declin-ing air pollutants and decreasing carbon stocks,and the"carbon reduction"effect is better than the"pollution reduc-tion"effect.The effect of"carbon reduction"is better than the effect of"pollution reduction".Under the aggregate control scenario,economic output responds better to exogenous shocks,and the synergistic effect of pollution reduc-tion and carbon reduction is more significant under the carbon tax policy scenario.In the aggregate control scenario,final goods production technology shocks have a structural effect on the energy consumption market,while the struc-tural effect is not obvious in the carbon tax and target intensity policy scenarios.The social welfare function examines the level of social welfare of residents under the three policy scenarios,and the social welfare of the three policy sce-narios,in descending order,is as follows:total control,target intensity,and carbon tax policy.Based on the conclu-sions of the study,this paper suggests that the existing environmental governance system should be changed from"di-vide and rule"to"combine and rule",and the environmental governance policy should be changed from"hard con-straints"to"soft incentives",and the environmental governance policy should be changed from"hard constraints"to"soft incentives".Environmental governance policies should be changed from"hard constraints"to"soft incentives",and environmental governance means should be changed from"end-of-pipe"to"source control".

Carbon Reduction and Pollution ReductionSynergistic Efficiency EnhancementDSGE ModelPolicy SimulationBenefits Analysis

甘天琦、周宗钰、张康宁、谌仁俊

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中南民族大学经济学院,邮政编码:430074

贵州大学经济学院,邮政编码:550025

华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,邮政编码:430079

减污降碳 协同增效 DSGE模型 政策模拟 福利分析

2024

环境经济研究

环境经济研究

ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.9(4)