Study on the Evolution of Global Gallium and Germanium Metal Trade Network Patterns and Supply Crisis Dissemination
Gallium and germanium are essential strategic resources utilized in various high-tech industries.As a major supplier of these elements,China recently announced plans to implement export restrictions on gallium and germanium-related products from July 3,2023.Assessing the potential repercussions of a supply disruption at the source on a global scale holds significant practical importance.This study examines trade data for gallium and germanium spanning from 2002 to 2022,employing trade network analysis techniques to quantify trade volumes,and examines the average degree and flow direction of global trade in gallium and germanium metals,introducing the trade dependence index to further analyze the evolution of the global trade network pattern of these metals.Additionally,a cascade failure(avalanche)model is developed with established parameters r1=r2=7 to simulate the effects of export control on the supply chain in 2022,including the propagation scale,rounds,and path of supply crises originating from various sources.The research indicates that,in the context of the evolution of global trade patterns,there is an increase in both the trade volume and average degree of gallium metal and germanium.Additionally,the trade dependence between Asian countries and the United States on gallium metal and germanium has decreased,while the trade dependence index of South America on the U.S.consumer market has strengthened.Furthermore,in terms of the dissemination of network supply crises,China exhibits the largest scale of crisis dissemination and the longest duration of dissemination,followed by the United States and Germany.European countries are the predominant nations among the top ten countries in terms of avalanche size.The impact of the China's supply crisis on the U.S.trade in unwrought metal gallium and germanium products is not direct,but rather indirect through intermediary countries such as Belgium and Switzerland.It is advisable to enhance supply security within the industrial chain through international economic cooperation,while also mitigating geopolitical risks stemming from the United States.Furthermore,expanding economic and trade relations with developing countries like Brazil is recommended.
gallium metalgermanium metaltrade patterncomplex networksupply crisiscascading failure model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
