首页|2015-2023年天山北坡区域PM2.5与O3-8 h变化趋势及影响因素分析

2015-2023年天山北坡区域PM2.5与O3-8 h变化趋势及影响因素分析

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  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
本研究基于2015-2023年天山北坡区域5个城市的常规大气污染物浓度数据、气象数据及CHAP数据集，应用CO示踪法和KZ(Kolmogorov-Zurbenko)滤波法，分析评估了天山北坡区域PM2。5浓度及其二次组分占比变化趋势以及气象和排放因素对PM2。5和O3-8 h浓度变化趋势的影响。结果表明:天山北坡区域PM2。5年浓度变化呈先增后降趋势，O3-8 h浓度变化呈逐年上升趋势。天山北坡区域PM2。5年均浓度达到峰值的年份要晚于京津冀、长三角、珠三角区域城市，2023年乌鲁木齐市、五家渠市、昌吉市、石河子市和克拉玛依市PM2。5年均浓度值较各自年均浓度峰值分别下降了44。5%、28。3%、21。9%、21。1%和33。2%，年均降幅分别为6。3%、4。1%、3。6%、5。3%和5。5%，2023年乌鲁木齐市、五家渠市、昌吉市、石河子市和克拉玛依市O3-8 h年均浓度相比2015年分别增加了60。7%、37。2%、36。5%、32。5%和10。7%，年均增幅分别为7。5%、4。6%、4。5%、4。1%和1。3%。2015-2023年天山北坡区域PM2。5二次组分占比范围为31%～57%，二次组分占比随PM2。5污染的加重而升高，当空气质量处于重度以上污染级别时，天山北坡各城市PM2。5中二次组分占比均超过63%，二次转化对天山北坡区域PM2。5污染有重要影响。排放因素对2017-2023年间天山北坡区域PM2。5浓度下降值的贡献率为76。2%～91%，对2015-2023年间O3-8 h增加值的贡献率在51%～78%之间，与PM2。5相比，气象因素对O3-8 h浓度年际变化趋势的影响更大。
Variation trends and influencing factors of PM2.5 and O3-8 h on the north slope of Tianshan Mountain during 2015-2023
Based on the conventional air pollutant concentration data,meteorological data and CHAP dataset of five cities in the north slope of Tianshan Mountain(NSTM)from 2015 to 2023,the variation trends of PM2.5 and O3-8h on NSTM were analyzied,and the changing trend of the secondary component sharing ratio of PM2.5 was investigated by using the CO tracer method.The influence of meteorological and emission factors on the changing trend of PM2.5 and O3-8 h on NSTM was also explored quantitatively by applying and Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering method.The conclusions are as follows:the annual concentration of PM2.5 on NSTM increased first and then decreased,and the O3-8 h concentration increased year by year.The average annual concentration of PM2.5 on NSTM reached its peak later than that in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.In 2023,the annual average concentration of PM2.5 Urumqi,Wujiaqiu,Changji,Shihezi,and Kelamayi decreased from their peak annual values by 44.5%,28.3%,21.9%,21.1%,and 33.2%,respectively,with an annual decreasing ratio of 6.3%,4.1%,3.6%,5.3%,and 5.5%,respectively.Compared with 2015,the O3-8 h concentrations in Urumqi,Wujiaqu,Changji,Shihezi,and Karamay increased by 60.7%,37.2%,36.5%,32.5%,and 10.7%in 2023,with the average annualgrowth rates of 7.5%,4.6%,4.5%,4.1%,and 1.3%,respectively.From 2015 to 2023,the proportion of the secondary components in PM2.5 ranged from 31%to 57%,and the proportion of the secondary components increased with the aggravation of PM2.5.When the air quality was above the serious pollution level,the proportion of the secondary components in PM2.5 on NSTM exceeded 63%,indicating the great impact of the secondary transformation on the aggravation of PM2.5.The emission factors contributed 76.2%～91%to the decrease of PM2.5 concentration from 2017 to 2023,and 51%～78%to the increase of O3-8h concentration from 2015 to 2023 on NSTM.On NSTM,the meteorological factors had a greater influence on the interannual changing trend of O3-8 h concentration compared with PM2.5.

CO tracerKZ filterPM2.5O3-8 hnorth slope of Tianshan Mountain

梅承志、李斌、何友江、杨欣、何凯杰、李富强、彭玉杰、刘雨鑫

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中北大学环境与安全学院,太原 030051

中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012

新疆生产建设兵团第八师生态环境监测站,石河子 832099

CO示踪 KZ滤波 PM2.5 O3-8 h 天山北坡

2025

10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2024.0359

环境科学学报
中国科学院生态环境研究中心

环境科学学报

北大核心
影响因子：1.645
ISSN：0253-2468
年,卷(期)：2025.45(1)