Evolutionary Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Scarcity of Urban Ecosystem Regulating Services in Beijing
As an international metropolis,Beijing's regulating ecosystem services are characterized by significant scarcity.Investigating the nature of this scarcity and the factors influencing ecosystem regulating services in Beijing is crucial for developing a rational pricing strategy for these services and optimizing the ecological security framework.This study constructs a theoretical framework for analysing the scarcity of urban ecosystem regulating services and systematically examines the spatio-temporal evolution,spatial differences,and driving factors of the relative scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing.The analysis uses ecological model estimation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and geographic detector methods.The analytical software used included ArcGIS,GEODA,and Geographic Detector.The results indicate that:(1)A theoretical framework for analysing urban ecosystem regulating services can be developed based on the principles of relative scarcity and spatial aggregation,considering the interplay between supply and demand dynamics.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing followed two phases:a'rising period'(2010-2015)and a'declining period'(2015-2020).This trend is closely linked to the pace of ecological construction at each stage,as well as to the rate of social and economic development.From 2010 to 2015,both GDP growth and population growth outpaced ecological construction.However,from 2015 to 2020,while GDP and population growth declined,the growth rate of ecological construction continued to rise.Additionally,the implementation of the plain afforestation project also contributed to the reduction in the scarcity of ecosystem regulating services.(3)The scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing exhibits positive spatial autocorrelation,indicating significant local spatial clustering.The scarcity index reveals that regions characterized by high-high-value clusters represent over 40%of the urban area,while areas with low-low-value clusters account for more than 15%.From 2010 to 2020,the extent of high-high-value clusters of ecosystems regulating services scarcity increased and then decreased,while the range of low-low-value clusters gradually diminished.This trend suggests a gradual move toward more balanced development between the spatial distribution of ecosystems and the social and economic development in Beijing.The spatial distribution of supply,demand,and scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing forms a distinct'circle structure'.The supply of regulating services demonstrates an increasing trend from the centre outward,while demand shows a decreasing trend in the same direction.Likewise,the degree of scarcity also decreases as one moves outward from the centre.(4)In terms of impact degree(q value),the factors influencing scarcity,ranked from largest to smallest,are population(0.62),annual precipitation(0.41),NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)(0.40),ecological land proportion(0.36),and slope(0.20).The interaction effect between population and ecological land proportion(q=0.77)is the most significant,followed closely by the interaction effect between NDVI and ecological land use proportion(q=0.76).To enhance ecological security,it is crucial to adjust the balance of scarcity in ecosystem regulating services by modifying the proportions of population and ecological land use.The study shows that the scarcity pattern of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing is gradually improving,with significant spatial heterogeneity in its evolutionary characteristics.Key factors such as population distribution,construction land,and the distribution and quality of ecological land should be managed reasonably to further optimize the spatial structure of service supply and demand.Additionally,a differentiated service pricing method based on the scarcity index of ecosystem regulating services should be developed to enhance the accuracy of Gross Ecosystem Product(GEP)accounting.
万方数据
维普
