首页|Cost dynamics of onshore wind energy in the context of China's carbon neutrality target

Cost dynamics of onshore wind energy in the context of China's carbon neutrality target

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Wind energy has become one of the most important measures for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.The spatial and temporal evolvement of economic competitiveness for wind energy becomes an important concern in shaping the decarbonization pathway in China.There has been an urgent need in power system planning to model the future dynamics of cost decline and supply potential for wind power in the context of carbon neutrality until 2060.Existing studies often fail to capture the rapid decline in the cost of wind power generation in recent years,and the prediction of wind power cost decline is more conservative than the reality.This study constructs an integrated model to evaluate the cost-competitiveness and grid parity potential of China's onshore wind electricity at fine spatial reso-lution with updated parameters.Results indicate that the total onshore wind potential amounts to 54.0 PWh.The average levelized cost of wind power is expected to decline from CNY 0.39 kWh-1 in 2020 to CNY 0.30 and CNY 0.21 kWh-1 in 2030 and 2060.28.3％,67.6％,and 97.6％of the technical potentials hold power costs lower than coal power in 2020,2030,and 2060.

Wind powerCarbon neutralityElectricity potentialEconomic competitivenessGrid parity

Shi Chen、Youxuan Xiao、Chongyu Zhang、Xi Lu、Kebin He、Jiming Hao

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School of Environment,State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

Institute for Carbon Neutrality,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金中国博士后科学基金Shuimu Tsinghua Scholar ProgramTsinghua University-Inditex Sustainable Development FundErdos-Tsinghua University Collaborative Innovation ProjectTsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Institute Crossdiscipline Program

72025401719741087214000372204132BX20211482021SM014

2024

10.1016/j.ese.2023.100323

环境科学与生态技术(英文)

环境科学与生态技术(英文)

ISSN：
年,卷(期)：2024.19(3)
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