首页|"碳达峰"视角下的碳排放大国的历史排放量及碳强度研究

"碳达峰"视角下的碳排放大国的历史排放量及碳强度研究

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人类活动导致的全球增温可能在某个时间点突破临界值,"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的实现意义重大.碳排放大国的碳排放状况对"双碳"目标的达成具有举足轻重的作用.本研究依托国际权威机构数据,梳理了碳排放大国能源利用和工业过程中二氧化碳排放的时空格局,为实现全球"碳达峰"提供实证性依据.研究表明:1)1850-2019 年,全球二氧化碳排放量累计1 690.445 Gt,其中,近 30 年的排放量为 860.116 6 Gt,超过了之前 140 年(1850-1989 年)的排放量.得益于可再生能源的发展,2012-2019 年,同比增长率为-0.355%~1.839%,相对于 2019 年,2022 年碳排放量增长了 1.939%.2)从历史角度看,1850 年以来,累计排放量超过 30 Gt的国家有10 个,占全球排放量的70.18%.美国碳排放总量占全球累计排放量的26%,几乎是中国的 2 倍,而且,其 72.63%的碳排放量集中于 2000 年之前,而中国 68.80%的碳排放量集中在近 20 年.1960 年以来,美国和加拿大的人均碳排放量全球最高,分别为 15.99~24.16 t、10.50~18.44 t,是全球平均的 3.41~5.31、3.15~4.58 倍.2004 年之前,中国人均碳排放量始终低于全球平均碳排放量.3)从现阶段看,2019 年,碳排放量前十的经济体占全球份额的69.28%,其中美国、日本、德国和加拿大等虽然已经碳达峰,并且碳强度明显低于其他国家,但是碳排放量绝对值仍然很大,碳排放量仍然占全球的 21.39%.4)全球气候治理体系的发起者和推动者——欧盟,碳强度大约是新兴经济体东盟的一半.最后,提出了降低碳强度、减少碳排量的相关建议.
Carbon emissions and intensity of major carbon emitting countries from a perspective of carbon peak
The global warming caused by human activities may exceed the critical threshold for the"carbon peak and carbon neutrality"target at some point.The carbon emissions of major emitting countries play a crucial role in achieving the"dual carbon"goals.Based on data from international authoritative institutions,this study analyzes the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon emissions from energy use and industrial processes in major emitting countries,providing empirical evidence for achieving global"carbon peak".The study shows that:1)From 1850 to 2019,the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions worldwide reached 1 690.445 Gt,with the emissions of the past 30 years(860.116 6 Gt)exceeding the emissions of the previous 140 years(1850-1989).Thanks to the development of renewable energy,the year-on-year growth rate of carbon emissions was-0.355%to 1.839%from 2012 to 2019,and the carbon emissions in 2022 increased by 1.939%compared to 2019.2)From a historical perspective,there have been 10 countries with cumulative emissions exceeding 30 Gt,accounting for 70.18%of global emissions since 1850.The United States accounts for 26%of the global cumulative emissions,almost twice that of China.Furthermore,72.63%of the US carbon emissions are concentrated before the year 2000,while 68.80%of China's carbon emissions are concentrated in the past 20 years.Since 1960,the United States and Canada have had the highest per capita carbon emissions globally,ranging from 15.99~24.16 t and 10.50~18.44 t,respectively,which is 3.41~5.31 and 3.15~4.58 times the global average.Prior to 2004,China's per capita carbon emissions were consistently lower than the global average emissions.3)In the current stage,as of 2019,the top ten economies in terms of carbon emissions accounted for 69.28%of the global share.Although countries like the United States,Japan,Germany,and Canada have already reached their carbon peaks and have significantly lower carbon intensity compared to other countries,their absolute carbon emissions remain substantial,accounting for 21.39%of global emissions.4)The European Union,which is the initiator and promoter of the global climate governance system,has a carbon intensity approximately half that of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),an emerging economy.Finally,recommendations are made to reduce carbon intensity and decrease carbon emissions.

Climate warmingcarbon peakcarbon top emitters countriescarbon reduction

汤宏波、赵素婷、李富山、吕新华

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中国科学院 武汉文献情报中心 科技大数据湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430071

气候变暖 碳达峰 碳排放大国 碳减排

中国科学院国际合作局出国专题研究项目

科际批字0034号

2024

环境生态学

环境生态学

CSTPCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.6(3)
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