首页|基于区间DEA模型的能源利用类行业减碳效率评估研究

基于区间DEA模型的能源利用类行业减碳效率评估研究

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衡量排碳大户的减碳效率和揭示其关键影响因素是实现"双碳"目标的重要途径.本研究以 4 个典型的能源利用类行业(电力热力的生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、交通运输业)作为独立的决策单元,在准确识别行业碳排放量的关键影响因素的不确定性特征和计算得到区间形式的碳排放量的基础上,创新性地构建了融合区间不确定性的非期望产出数据包络分析(DEA)模型,并运用 2 阶段的交互式区间优化算法对其进行求解,分析和评估了上述 4 个能源利用类行业 2010-2019 年的减碳效率.求解得到的区间形式的减碳效率值表明:4 个能源利用类行业的总体减碳效率偏低,但是呈现逐年上升趋势;各个行业的减碳效率差异明显,其中,高的减碳效率对应于较低的碳排放量;相反,高的碳排放将会拉低行业的整体减碳效率.
Carbon reduction efficiency assessment of energy use industries based on interval DEA model
Measuring carbon-reduction efficiency of the industry with the high carbon emission and revealing the critical influence factor is an important way to achieve the"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"goal.In this study,selected typical four energy-utilization industries(including the electricity,heat production and supply industry,the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products,the ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry and the transportation industry)as independent DMU(Decision Making Unit),the uncertain characteristics of critical influence factors of carbon emission were identified firstly.Then,the carbon emission amounts presented as the interval value were obtained based on IPCC calculation method.Next,a non-expected output data envelopment analysis(DEA)model under interval uncertainty was formulated innovatively.Finally,the carbon-reduction efficiency of above four energy-utilization industries from 2010 to 2019 was analyzed and evaluated by aid of interactive two-step interval optimization algorithm.The generated interval results demonstrated that,the overall carbon-reduction efficiency is relatively low,but shows an increasing trend.Moreover,there is a significant heterogeneity in carbon-reduction efficiency of four industries during the evaluation period,where the high carbon-reduction efficiency is corresponding to the low carbon emission;Conversely,the high carbon emission amount will drag down overall carbon-reduction efficiency.

Carbon emission calculationinterval DEA modelcarbon reduction efficiencyenergy-utilization industry

许静、胡文博、韩月、王曦、张林垚

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国网电力科学研究院 武汉能效测评有限公司,湖北 武汉 430060

国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建 福州 350000

碳排放核算 区间DEA模型 减碳效率 不确定性

国家电网有限公司总部科技项目

1400-202257250A-1-1-ZN

2024

环境生态学

环境生态学

CSTPCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.6(7)
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