未来气候情景下生态系统服务价值空间异质性分析——以柯柯牙为例
Spatial heterogeneity analysis of ecosystem service value under future climate scenarios:A case study of Ke Keya
田欣雨 1王让会 1刘春伟 1周丽敏1
作者信息
- 1. 南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院,江苏 南京 210044
- 折叠
摘要
基于CMIP6 未来情景下的气候变化通过耦合FLUS模型,运用InVEST模型、CASA模型分析研究区的水源涵养、固碳释氧、土壤保持价值时空变化趋势,并利用R语言、GeoDa模型对研究区生态系统服务价值进行空间异质性分析.结果表明:在SSP245、SSP585 情景下单位面积水源涵养价值分别为 17.34 万元/km2、14.28 万元/km2;单位面积固碳释氧价值分别为107.13 万元/km2、101.75 万元/km2;单位面积土壤保持价值分别为 40.18 万元/km2、44.61 万元/km2.本研究结论:在未来情景下,生态系统服务价值总体呈增加趋势,SSP245 情景下生态系统服务价值增加幅度更大;全局Moran's I指数整体呈波动增加趋势,其中土壤保持、水源涵养功能在空间上具有较高聚集性,固碳释氧功能聚集性相对较差,研究区北部生态系统服务价值聚集性更高;研究区内生态系统服务价值均呈协同关系,未来情景下整体协同值呈增加趋势.厘清生态子系统之间的依赖关系,形成更完善的代谢循环,对于生态系统的稳定性以及可持续发展具有重要意义.
Abstract
Utilizing the CMIP6 future scenario,this study conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal trends of water conservation,carbon sequestration,oxygen release and soil conservation value in the study area.The FLUSH model,InVEST model and CASA model were coupled for this analysis.Furthermore,spatial heterogeneity analysis of the ecosystem service value in the study area was performed using R language and the GeoDa model.The results revealed that the water conservation value per unit area was 173 400 yuan/km2 and 142 800 yuan/km2 under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.Meanwhile,the carbon sequestration and oxygen release values per unit area were 1 071 300 yuan/km2 and 1 017 500 yuan/km2,respectively.The soil conservation value per unit area was 401 800 yuan/km2 and 446 100 yuan/km2,respectively.In conclusion,under the future scenario,there is a general increase in the value of ecosystem services,with an even greater increase under the SSP245 scenario.The overall Moran's I index demonstrated a fluctuating and increasing trend.Spatially,there was high aggregation of soil conservation and water conservation functions,while carbon sequestration and oxygen release functions showed relatively poor aggregation.Additionally,there was higher ecosystem service value aggregation in the northern part of the study area.The study area displayed a synergistic relationship in the ecosystem services,which showed an increasing trend under the future scenario.It is of significant importance to elucidate the interdependencies between ecological subsystems and establish a more comprehensive metabolic cycle for the stability and sustainable development of ecosystems.
关键词
生态系统服务价值/InVEST模型/未来气候情景/柯柯牙Key words
Ecosystem service value/InVEST model/future climate scenarios/Ke Keya引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据