首页|基于"末端控制-区域协同"的京津冀地区碳减排效应及时空特征分析

基于"末端控制-区域协同"的京津冀地区碳减排效应及时空特征分析

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近年来,协同推进区域碳减排已被上升为国家重要战略,作为我国最发达经济圈之一的京津冀地区,始终将统筹环境治理作为推动区域协同发展的重点领域.然而,现有研究缺乏从京津冀地区总体视角,通过一致的比较框架来探究 3 省市碳排放与地区协同发展之间的区域协同减排效应.本研究选用单位国内生产总值(GDP)的碳排放量作为指标,并创新性地在末端控制-区域协同分析框架下,通过对数平均分裂指数(LMDI)方法量化部门末端控制、区域协同减排效应和社会经济发展对碳减排的影响.结果表明,部门末端控制措施对京津冀地区碳减排影响较小,非控制、控制以及基线 3 种情景下京津冀区域碳排放浓度依次下降,相较非控制情景,后两者降幅分别为 0.072 7%、25.376 3%,区域协同减排效应对于碳减排影响潜力巨大.河北省是京津冀地区区域协同减排效应碳减排重要突破口,且 2014-2021 年京津冀地区区域协同减排效应带来的碳减排主要归因于产业结构、家庭能源使用水平、能源强度等驱动因素.
Analysis of carbon emission reduction effect and spatiotemporal characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on"terminal control-regional synergy"
In recent years,the coordinated promotion of regional carbon emission reduction has been elevated to an important national strategy.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,as one of China's most developed economic circles,has always regarded comprehensive environmental governance as a key area to promote regional coordinated development.However,existing studies lack a consistent comparative framework to explore the regional synergistic emission reduction effect between carbon emissions and the coordinated development of the three provinces and cities from the overall perspective of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.In this study,carbon emissions per unit of GDP are selected as the index,and the impact of sectoral control,regional synergistic emission reduction,and socio-economic development on carbon emission reduction is innovatively quantified by the LMDI method under the framework of end-control-regional synergy analysis.The results show that sectoral end-of-pipe control measures have little effect on carbon emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.In the three scenarios of non-control,control,and baseline,the carbon emission concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region decreases.Compared with the non-control scenario,the latter two decrease by 0.072 7%and 25.376 3%respectively,indicating that the regional synergistic emission reduction effect has great potential for carbon emission reduction.Hebei Province is an important breakthrough for carbon emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the carbon emission reduction brought about by the regional synergistic emission reduction effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014 to 2021 is mainly attributed to driving factors such as industrial structure,household energy use levels,and energy intensity.

Regional synergistic emission reduction effectcarbon emission reductionLMDIcoordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeispatial and temporal differentiation

张鹏程、那晓红、张家瑛、顾承尧

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河海大学 商学院,江苏 南京 211100

区域协同减排效应 碳减排 LMDI 京津冀协同发展 时空分异

2024

环境生态学

环境生态学

CSTPCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.6(10)