环境生态学2024,Vol.6Issue(12) :9-18.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2096-6830.2024.12.02

基于气象和遥感数据自贡地区PM2.5浓度拟合研究

Fitting PM2.5 concentration in Zigong area based on improved PSO-BP

王玲玲 欧奕含 刘霭薇 罗伟 段修荣 李强 陈婷 邹长武
环境生态学2024,Vol.6Issue(12) :9-18.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2096-6830.2024.12.02

基于气象和遥感数据自贡地区PM2.5浓度拟合研究

Fitting PM2.5 concentration in Zigong area based on improved PSO-BP

王玲玲 1欧奕含 1刘霭薇 1罗伟 1段修荣 1李强 1陈婷 2邹长武2
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作者信息

  • 1. 自贡市气象局,四川自贡 643000;高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都 610000
  • 2. 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都 610000;成都信息工程大学,四川成都 610000
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摘要

为提高广域和连续的PM2.5浓度监测预测精度,本研究采用XGBoost算法筛选2017-2019年自贡地区关键气象影响因素,结合遥感MCD19A2产品反演得到逐日气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)作为输入变量,建立改进粒子群算法(PSO)优化的PM2.5浓度拟合智能模型,分别将同期PSO-BP、PSO-SVM和PSO-PP模型拟合结果进行RMSE、MAE和R2验证分析和改进TOPSIS方法评价.结果表明:1)由XGBoost算法确定降雨量、风速和温度作为PM2.5浓度拟合模型输入的气象代表因子.2)改进的PSO-BP模型的拟合效果更稳定且精度最高,RMSE、MAE范围分别为0.215~0.381和0.146~0.234,R2更大(范围为0.611~0.998),且TOPSIS评价多数站点排名范围为1~21.3)改进的PSO-BP模型拟合PM2.5浓度的相关系数R均值介于0.859~0.994之间,R均值高于0.900的占比90%.其中由遥感卫星过境前后1 h、2 h的AOD和气象因子值组合建模效果最佳,4个站点R均值分别为0.934、0.928、0.932、0.944.4)改进的PSO-BP模型季节拟合结果表现为标准差在季节交替时段有增大趋势,夏季到秋季和秋季到冬季表现尤为明显;且拟合均值结果与实况相关系数均通过了 0.05及以上的显著性检验,相关性冬季表现最优为0.920,其次是春季.

Abstract

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of wide-area and continuous PM2.5 concentration monitoring,the XGBoost algorithm was used to screen the key meteorological influencing factors in Zigong area from 2017 to 2019,and the daily aerosol optical depth(AOD)was obtained by combining remote sensing MCD19A2 product inversion as input variables,and an intelligent model of PM2.5 concentration optimization optimized by improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)was established.The fitting results of PSO-SVM and PSO-PP models were used for RMSE,MAE and R2 validation analysis and evaluation of improved TOPSIS.The results showed that:1)The XGBoost algorithm was used to determine the rainfall,wind speed and temperature as the meteorological representative factors input to the PM2.5 concentration fitting model.2)The fitting effect of the improved PSO-BP model was more stable and the highest accuracy,with RMSE and MAE ranges of 0.215~0.381 and 0.146~0.234,respectively,and R2 was larger(range of 0.611~0.998),and the ranking range of most sites in TOPSIS evaluation was 1~21.3)The improved PSO-BP model fits the mean correlation coefficient R of PM2.5 concentration,which is between 0.859~0.994,and the mean R value is higher than 0.900 for 90%.The combination of AOD and meteorological factor values at 1 h and 2 h before and after the transit of the remote sensing satellite had the best modeling effect,and the mean R values of the four stations were 0.934,0.928,0.932 and 0.944,respectively.4)The seasonal fitting results of the improved PSO-BP model showed that the standard deviation had an increasing trend in the seasonal transition period,especially from summer to autumn and autumn to winter.Moreover,the fitting mean results and the real-time correlation coefficient both passed the significance test of 0.05 or above,and the correlation performance was the best in winter at 0.920,followed by spring.

关键词

PM2.5浓度拟合模型/气溶胶光学厚度/气象要素/粒子群算法

Key words

PM2.5 concentration fitting model/aerosol optical thickness/meteorological elements/particle swarm optimization

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出版年

2024
环境生态学

环境生态学

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