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Repair tolerance assessment for aircraft composite structures using Bayesian updating

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Detection and repair of composite damage is crucial to ensure the safety and reliability of aircraft structures.A novel approach to quantitatively evaluate the repair tolerance of composite structures in civil aircraft based on Bayesian updating is presented.The method incorporates his-torical damage inspection data to determine the prior distribution of damage size,which is then updated with newly collected damage size data using Bayesian theory.Monte Carlo simulation is employed to investigate the probability of failure and estimate maintenance costs,considering var-ious factors such as the frequency and timing of damage events,damage detection,structural strength,gust loads,and maintenance expenses throughout the lifecycle of composite structures.Safety and economic factors are considered to establish a lower threshold for repairs and an upper threshold for maintenance based on the occurrence of accidental impact damage.Verification of the effectiveness and feasibility of a quantitative assessment method for repair tolerance is conducted using damage statistics data from civil aircraft routes utilizing the structural skin panels of compos-ite outer wing.The results demonstrate that the method proposed in conjunction with extensive sim-ulations and full utilization of field damage inspection data can effectively simulate unexpected impact damage situations that may occur during civil aircraft service and evaluate the reliability and economic feasibility of the repair of structure.The research findings hold significant theoretical and practical value for the preparation of documents for continued airworthiness of composite structures,including structural repair manuals and maintenance programs.

Composite structuresRepair toleranceMaintenanceBayesian updatingProbability of failure

Xin LI、Hongfu ZUO、Bin YANG

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School of Automotive and Rail Transit,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China

Civil Aviation Key Laboratory of Aircraft Heahh Monitoring and Intelligent Maintenance,College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China

Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,ChinaNatural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaChina Scholarship Council

BK20220687BK20201470U193320212372079201606830028

2024

10.1016/j.cja.2024.03.038

中国航空学报(英文版)
中国航空学会

中国航空学报(英文版)

CSTPCDEI
影响因子：0.847
ISSN：1000-9361
年,卷(期)：2024.37(6)
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