Research on Import and Export Trade Volume of Shandong Province Based on X-12-ARIMA Model
The stable and healthy development of foreign trade plays an important supporting role in high-quality economic growth.To fully study the operational characteristics of foreign trade in Shandong Province,the X-12-ARIMA model was used to conduct seasonal adjustment analysis on the foreign trade import and export data of Shandong Province from January 2014 to November 2023.The results show that the import and export trade volume of Shandong Province is significantly affected by fixed seasons and mobile holidays(such as the Spring Festival),among which the post Spring Festival effect is the largest,which has a negative inhibitory effect on foreign trade data.After seasonal adjustment,the sequence is smoother and can better reflect the basic trend of import and export trade volume.
International TradeValue of Imports and ExportsX-12-ARIMASeasonal Adjustment
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
