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全球价值链地位、汇率变动与中国出口

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基于中国出口"一带一路"国家的相关数据,利用全球价值链地位指标分析了全球价值链地位给出口汇率弹性带来的影响.研究结果表明,人民币汇率对出口依然具有显著影响,汇率对出口竞争力的影响不能被忽视.然而,研究结果也表明全球价值链地位的提升将弱化出口的汇率弹性.因此,在人民币汇率市场化趋势下深度融入全球化生产、促进中国的全球价值链地位向高端攀升能有效弱化汇率变动对中国向"一带一路"国家出口的影响.值得注意的是,汇率市场化时代也要防止汇率过于剧烈的波动以减少对出口的冲击.
Global Value Chain Status,Exchange Rate Changes,and China's Exports
Based on the relevant data of China's export countries along the"the Belt and Road",this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of GVC status on export exchange rate elasticity by using GVC status indicators.The research results indicate that the RMB exchange rate still has a significant impact on exports,and the impact of exchange rate on export competitiveness cannot be ignored.However,the research results also indicate that an increase in the position of the global value chain will weaken the exchange rate elasticity of exports.Therefore,under the trend of RMB exchange rate marketization,deeply integrating into global production and promoting China's global value chain status to the high-end can effectively weaken the impact of exchange rate changes on China's exports to the"the Belt and Road"countries.It is worth noting that in the era of market-oriented exchange rates,it is also necessary to prevent excessive fluctuations in exchange rates to reduce the impact on exports.

Global Value Chain PositionExchange RateExportThe Belt and Road Initiative

吴希凡、印梅

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南通大学商学院,江苏 南通 226019

全球价值链地位 汇率 出口 一带一路

2024

对外经贸
黑龙江省对外贸易经济合作研究所 黑龙江省国际经济贸易学会

对外经贸

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.394
ISSN:2095-3283
年,卷(期):2024.(12)