Water resources are an important factor affecting the economic development of the northwest Shandong plain.Analyzing the supply-demand balance of water resources and predicting future water demand are of great significance in promoting the rational development and utilization of water resources and the harmonious development of humans and nature.Based on the water consumption data of Lingcheng district in the past 12 years,the gray GM(1,1)model prediction method was used to describe the water demand from the perspective of macro indicators of the economic scale and population size that can be supported by the water resources in 2022,and to predict the state of supply and demand of water from 2023 to 2030.The results show that the macro water demand calculations for the current year of 2022 have a relative error δ=0.008 to the model,and the grayscale model predictions are accurate.For the water supply guarantee rate of 50％,the water shortage in the current year of 2022 is 40.9 million m3,accounting for 16.74％of the total water quantity,and the water shortage in the planning year of 2030 is 18.11 million m3,accounting for 6.28％of the total.By 2030,the supply and demand of water resources will not reach a balanced state yet,but the water balance index ID is increasing year by year,and the water shortage state is gradually easing.Under the existing economic and technological conditions,the water resources loading index in the planning year of 2030 will be Class Ⅲ,with insufficient water resources carrying potential and a single mode of water resources utilization,which is still a bottleneck for socio-economic development.A reference for the rational planning and utilization of water resources in the northwest Shandong plain is provided.
关键词
灰色理论/供需预测/水资源承载力/鲁西北平原
Key words
grey theory/supply and demand prediction/water resources carrying capacity/northwest Shandong plain
维普
万方数据