Grey prediction of population aging based on weakening operator in Heilongjiang Province
In recent years,the population aging rate of Heilongjiang Province is higher than that of the whole nation,and the size of the elderly population continues to rise,which has an impact on the medical security system,the structure of labor resources,and the elderly care service system,therefore,the study on the aging population prediction of Heilongjiang Province is of very important practical significance.Even GM(1,1)prediction model by first-order weakening operator optimization is proposed to predict the development trend of the elderly population of Heilongjiang Province,aiming at the grey characteristics of population aging in Heilongjiang Province.It is taken the aging population original data of Heilongjiang Province from 2006 to 2021 as samples,the population aging prediction model of Heilongjiang Province is established basing on even GM(1,1)model with first-order weakening operator,and then the accuracy of this above model is made a comparative analysis with the Heilongjiang population aging prediction model based on even GM(1,1).The results show that the accuracy of even GM(1,1)prediction model with first-order weakening operator is higher than the traditional even GM(1,1)prediction model in the aging population of Heilongjiang Province,which indicates that even GM(1,1)model with first-order weakening operator can improve accuracy in Heilongjiang elderly population prediction.
population agingfirst-order weakening operatorgrey predictioneven GM(1,1)accuracy assessment
万方数据
维普
