首页|基于CUACE分等级的空气质量预报研究

基于CUACE分等级的空气质量预报研究

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本文针对2021年6月—2022年7月中国气象局研制的CUACE地面沙尘浓度和空气质量AQI数据进行了相关分析,使用K-means聚类算法将CUACE沙尘浓度按300、1 000、3 000、5 000划分为五层,基于随机森林模型建立了空气质量等级的预报模型,结果表明:CUACE越大,AQI≥300的数据量占比也越大;当CUACE≥5 000时,AQI全部大于300,当5 000>CUACE≥3 000时,AQI出现两级分化,AQI在200-400之间的数据量不超过1%;一至三层的数据中,AQI<100的比例明显增多,分别占86.2%、68%、41.8%;模型整体效果优于CUACE,其中第五层和第四层表现出了更好的预测效果.
Research on Air Quality Prediction Based on CUACE
This article conducts correlation analysis on the CUACE ground dust concentration and air quality AQI data developed by the China Meteorological Administration from June 2021 to July 2022.The K-means clustering algorithm is used to divide the CUACE dust concentration into five layers according to 300,1 000,3 000,and 5 000.A prediction model for air quality level is established based on a random forest model.The results show that the larger the CUACE,the greater the proportion of data with AQI ≥ 300;When CUACE≥5 000,all AQIs are greater than 300.When 5 000>CUACE ≥ 3 000,AQI undergoes two-stage differentiation,and the data volume of AQI between 200-400 does not exceed 1%;In the data from the first to third layers,the proportion of AQI<100 has significantly increased,accounting for 86.2%,68%,and 41.8%,respectively;The overall performance of the model is better than that of CUACE,with the fifth and fourth layers exhibiting better predictive performance.

CUACEair quality forecastrandom forest model

石霖晟杰、刘姝宁、秦闻通、吴瑕

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内蒙古自治区气象科学研究所,内蒙古 呼和浩特

内蒙古自治区包头市气象局,内蒙古 包头

内蒙古自治区根河市气象局,内蒙古根河

CUACE 空气质量预报 随机森林

内蒙古自治区气象局科技项目

nmqxjbgs202304

2024

科学技术创新
黑龙江省科普事业中心

科学技术创新

影响因子:0.842
ISSN:1673-1328
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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