Applying Two Types of Prediction Modeling to Wooden Culture Relics Monitoring of Wooden Floodgate Relics of Nanyue Kingdom
In order to acknowledge the varying regulation of wood floodgate culture relics of Nanyue Kingdom and assess whether wood culture relics are stable or not,and provide necessary monitoring data for relics conservation,the third exponential smoothing model and grey Verhulst model is employed to forecast the developing trend of a fissure at the relics.The predicted and actual observed data are compared to deter-mine the accuracy of the two models.The results indicate that both forecast data developing trends are gradu-ally increasing,which is basically consistent with the actual observations.Furthermore,the third exponential smoothing method is more precise and proves the feasibility of using a model to predict the development trend of fissures in wooden cultural relics at sites.
万方数据
维普
