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基于区间分析的电站锅炉承压部件风险评估

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为确保电站锅炉承压部件风险评估的准确性,在遵循《GB/T 30581-2014 电站锅炉承压系统风险管理方法》等标准的基础上,引入了先进的区间分析方法,以降低技术人员主观因素及测试数据不确定性对评估结果的影响.此方法采用区间数来精准描述现场检验数据的不确定性,构建了一个电站锅炉承压部件风险区间的半定量分析模型.这一模型不仅提供了定量数据,还结合了定性分析结果,使得风险评估更加全面和准确,成功提高了电站锅炉的服役性能.为了验证其可行性及可靠性,以福州市某单位的一台电站锅炉承压部分的风险评估为例进行了实证研究.结果表明,该方法能够有效降低评估中的不确定性,为电站锅炉的安全运行提供了坚实的技术支撑.
Risk assessment of pressure components in power station boilers based on interval analysis
To ensure the accuracy of risk assessments for pressure components in power station boilers,this paper introduced advanced interval analysis methods based on the standards such as GB/T 30581-2014 Power Station Boiler Pressure System Risk Management Method.The methods aimed to reduce the impact of technicians′ subjective factors and uncertainty in test data on the assessment results.By utilizing interval numbers to precisely describe the uncertainty in on-site inspection data,a semi-quantitative analysis model for risk intervals of pressure components in power station boilers was constructed.This model not only provided quantitative data but also integrated qualitative analysis results,making the risk assessment more comprehensive and accurate.Consequently,the service performance of power station boilers was successfully improved.To verify the feasibility and reliability of this method,an empirical study was conducted on the risk assessment of a pressure part of a power station boiler belonging to a unit in Fuzhou.The results indicated that this method was effective in reducing uncertainty in assessments,providing a solid technical support for the safe operation of power station boilers.

power plant boilerrisk assessmentinterval mathematicssemi-quantitative analysisuncertaintyqualitative analysis

吴林军

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福建省锅炉压力容器检验研究院,福州 350008

电站锅炉 风险评估 区间数学 半定量分析 不确定性 定性分析

省局科技项目

FJMS2020015

2024

哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版)
哈尔滨商业大学

哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版)

影响因子:0.405
ISSN:1672-0946
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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