Objective To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of surgical site infection following stoma reversal and to develop a prediction model.Methods This was a prospective cohort study enrolling patients who underwent stoma rever-sal at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from September 2023 to February 2024,with a 30-day follow-up.Multivariate logistic regression was employed to identify risk factors for surgical site infection post-stoma reversal and to develop a predictive model.The model's predictive accuracy was assessed using the receiver operating charac-teristic(ROC)curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and a nomogram.Results Among 310 patients,83 developed surgical site infection after stoma reversal,with an infection rate of 26.8％.Multivariate logistic regression identified peristomal dermati-tis pre-surgery,a history of surgical site infection post-stoma surgery,and prophylactic antibiotic used as independent risk factors for incisional infection following stoma reversal(P＜0.05).The logistic regression equation was Logit(P)=-0.890+1.676 ×(history of surgical site infection post-stoma surgery)+1.208 ×(peristomal dermatitis pre-surgery)-0.948 ×(prophylactic antibiotic use).The area under the ROC curve was 0.730,with a Youden index of 0.412 and an optimal cut-off value of 0.247,resulting in a model specificity of 74.9％and sensitivity of 66.3％.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good model calibration(P=0.926).Conclusion The rate of surgical site infection following stoma reversal is high.Peris-tomal dermatitis pre-surgery,a history of surgical site infection post-stoma surgery,and prophylactic antibiotic use are sig-nificant predictors of surgical site infection post-stoma reversal.The developed on model demonstrates satisfactory prediction performance.
关键词
造口回纳/手术切口感染/术后并发症/影响因素/预测模型
Key words
stoma reversal/surgical site infection/post operative complications/risk factors/prediction model
维普
万方数据