火力与指挥控制2024,Vol.49Issue(11) :87-94.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2024.11.012

舰载机不完全修复设备备件需求预测模型及仿真分析

Forecast Model and Simulation Analysis of Spare Parts Demand for Incomplete Repair Equipment of Carrier-based Aircrafts

王俊柯 蒋铁军 张玉智 赵伟伟
火力与指挥控制2024,Vol.49Issue(11) :87-94.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2024.11.012

舰载机不完全修复设备备件需求预测模型及仿真分析

Forecast Model and Simulation Analysis of Spare Parts Demand for Incomplete Repair Equipment of Carrier-based Aircrafts

王俊柯 1蒋铁军 2张玉智 3赵伟伟4
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作者信息

  • 1. 海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉 430033;解放军 92198部队,辽宁 兴城 125100
  • 2. 海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉 430033
  • 3. 解放军 92955部队,辽宁 兴城 125100
  • 4. 解放军 92198部队,辽宁 兴城 125100
  • 折叠

摘要

对备件需求数量进行准确预测是提高舰载机随舰备件保障效能的关键.在舰载机执行平时训练任务情况下,基于虚拟役龄理论,建立不完全修复设备备件需求生成模型,采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法对不同备件携行数量情况下的备件保障概率进行求解,确定备件携行方案;采用控制变量法,对设备使用时间、备件修复时间、备件修复效果等因素对备件保障概率的影响进行仿真分析,提出相关保障建议.

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of spare parts demand is the key to improve the efficiency of shipborne spare parts for carrier-based aircrafts.Based on the virtual service age theory,a spare parts demand generation model for incomplete repair equipment is established,and the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to solve the spare parts support probability under different spare parts car-rying quantities,and the spare parts carrying scheme.The control variable method is used to simu-late and analyze the influence of equipment use time,spare parts repair time,spare parts repair effects and other factors on the spare parts support probability,and the relevant support probability are proposed.

关键词

舰载机/不完全修复/备件需求/保障概率

Key words

carrier-based aircrafts/incomplete repair/spare parts demand/support probability

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出版年

2024
火力与指挥控制
火力与指挥控制研究会,火力与指挥控制专业情报网

火力与指挥控制

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.312
ISSN:1002-0640
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