Land Use Change and Scenario Simulation Based on PLUS Model:A Case Study of Central Kaifeng
Based on the land use data of the central urban area of Kaifeng in 2000,2010,and 2020,We quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use in the research area over the past 20 years;a Logistic regression model is used to determine the relationship between relevant driving factors and different categories;the PLUS model is used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the study area under four different scenarios by 2030.The results indicate that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the speed of land use structure change in the central urban area of Kaifeng continued to accelerate,and the area of construction land grew rapidly.The expansion direction was concentrated in the western part of Longting district,mainly derived from the conversion of arable land.(2)GDP,distance from rural settlements,urban roads,urban centers,and water bodies were the main driving forces affecting land use change.(3)The construction land showed significant growth in all four simulated scenarios,with the most obvious expansion in natural scenarios.The newly added construction land was mainly concentrated in the western part of Longting district.Under the comprehensive development scenario,the occupation of construction land for other land types has decreased,and the growth of construction land in each region is relatively balanced.
land usemulti-scenario simulationLogistic regression modelPLUS modelCentral Kaifeng
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
