1961-2020年黄河中游径流量变化特征及影响因素分析
Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Runoff in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020
彭俊 1赵宇杰 1潘志成 1许峰 1叶常青1
作者信息
- 1. 滁州学院地理信息与旅游学院,安徽滁州 239000
- 折叠
摘要
基于1961-2020年黄河干流头道拐、龙门、三门峡和花园口水文站的径流量数据,以及同期花园口站以上流域降雨量数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法、小波分析和双累积曲线等方法,分析黄河中游各水文站径流量的变化特征,探讨气候变化和人类活动对径流量影响的贡献度.结果表明:黄河中游各水文站径流量均呈显著减少的趋势(超过a=0.05显著性检验临界值),其中花园口站的减少趋势最为明显.各水文站径流量呈间歇式周期振荡(以3～6 a年际振荡为主),这种周期特征在1990s后期逐渐消失.1985年为各水文站径流量发生突变的年份,这是气候变化和人类活动双重作用的结果.1985年以前径流量和降雨量呈正相关,1985年以后人类活动是径流量减少的主要影响因素,贡献度达到81.20％.
Abstract
According to the runoff data from 1961-2020 at the hydrological stations of the main stream of the Yellow River at Toudaoguai,Longmen,Sanmenxia and Huayuankou,and the rainfall data of the basin above Huayuanstation during the same period,the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method,cumulative distance level method,wavelet analysis and double accumulation curve were used to analyze the characteristics of runoff at the hydrological stations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and to explore the contribution of climate change and human activities.The results showed that,the runoff at each hydrological station in the middle reaches of the Yellow River was significantly decreasing(exceeding the threshold value of α=0.05),with the most obvious decrease at Huayuankou Station.The cycle variation of runoff at each hydrological station was mainly concentrated in the time scale of 3～6 a,and this cycle characteristic gradually disappears in the late 1990s.1985 was the year of abrupt change of runoff at each hydrological station,which was the result of both climate change and human activities.Before 1985,runoff and rainfall were positively correlated and after 1985,human activities were the main influencing factors of runoff reduction,with the contribution of 81.20％.
关键词
黄河流域/径流量/Mann-Kendall法/降雨量/人类活动Key words
Yellow River Basin/runoff/Mann-Kendall method/precipitation/human activities引用本文复制引用
基金项目
滁州市科技计划项目(2021ZD010)
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2022cxxl1303)
地理信息与旅游学院劳动教育示范教学团队(20221dtd03)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据